Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

151–200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
151	GOLDEN VIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	9.6%	99.0	C	NH	MEREDITH	131	—
152	MEADOWVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	9.5%	99.0	C	NJ	NORTHFIELD	180	—
153	Oglala Sioux Lakota Nursing Home	9.5%	99.0	A	NE	Rushville	72	—
154	ONALASKA CARE CENTER	9.5%	99.0	A	WI	ONALASKA	80	—
155	FOUR SEASONS RETIREMENT CENTER	9.4%	99.0	B	IN	COLUMBUS	30	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC
156	Overlook Masonic Health Center	9.4%	99.0	B	MA	CHARLTON	181	—
157	Stonehaven Senior Living	9.3%	99.0	A	CA	FRESNO	—	BAYSHIRE LLC
158	Randolph County Care Center	9.3%	99.0	C	IL	SPARTA	100	—
159	ST LUKE RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY INC	9.3%	99.0	C	NY	OSWEGO	200	—
160	RIDGECREST REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CENTER	9.1%	99.0	C	GA	COLUMBUS	84	—
161	MILLER COUNTY CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	9.1%	99.0	A	MO	TUSCUMBIA	86	—
162	CORDELE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	9.0%	99.0	B	GA	CORDELE	100	—
163	WINNER REGIONAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.0%	99.0	A	SD	WINNER	40	—
164	Sandhills Care Center	9.0%	98.9	A	NE	Ainsworth	46	—
165	KABUL NURSING HOMES INC	9.0%	98.9	B	MO	CABOOL	99	—
166	NEHALEM VALLEY CARE CENTER	9.0%	98.9	B	OR	WHEELER	50	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
167	PINE VIEW MANOR INC	9.0%	98.9	B	MO	STANBERRY	70	—
168	HARDIN COUNTY NH	8.9%	98.9	B	TN	SAVANNAH	73	—
169	Northgate Unit Of Lakeview Christian Home	8.8%	98.9	C	NM	Carlsbad	112	—
170	ROSEBUD HEALTH CARE CENTER	8.8%	98.9	A	MT	FORSYTH	31	—
171	GALENA STAUSS NURSING HOME	8.7%	98.9	B	IL	GALENA	57	—
172	SUNSET HOME INC	8.7%	98.9	B	KS	CONCORDIA	45	—
173	Cody Regional Health Long Term Care Center	8.7%	98.9	A	WY	Cody	94	WEST PARK HOSPITAL DISTRICT
174	CALLAWAY NURSING HOME	8.6%	98.9	C	OK	SULPHUR	86	—
175	RIVERWOODS AT EXETER	8.6%	98.9	A	NH	EXETER	8	—
176	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	8.6%	98.9	B	IL	CHICAGO	76	—
177	CARLETON-WILLARD VILLAGE RETIREMENT & NURSING CTR	8.5%	98.9	B	MA	BEDFORD	179	—
178	INDIANA VETERANS HOME	8.5%	98.9	A	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	212	—
179	JEANNE JUGAN RESIDENCE	8.5%	98.8	A	DE	NEWARK	40	—
180	GOOD SAMARITAN CARE CENTER	8.5%	98.8	A	MO	COLE CAMP	72	—
181	TEL HAI RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	8.5%	98.8	A	PA	HONEY BROOK	119	—
182	MADISON VALLEY MANOR	8.4%	98.8	A	MT	ENNIS	32	—
183	Good Samaritan Society - Superior	8.3%	98.8	C	NE	Superior	69	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
184	SKAALEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	8.3%	98.8	B	WI	STOUGHTON	70	—
185	EVENGLOW LODGE	8.3%	98.8	B	IL	PONTIAC	48	—
186	THE WOLFE LIVING CENTER AT SUMMIT RIDGE	8.3%	98.8	A	OK	HARRAH	48	—
187	LAFAYETTE-REDEEMER, THE	8.3%	98.8	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
188	LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEMS	8.2%	98.8	A	MO	OSAGE BEACH	16	—
189	Pinecrest Medical Care Facility	8.2%	98.8	B	MI	Powers	120	—
190	BOULDER CITY HOSPITAL SNF	8.2%	98.8	A	NV	BOULDER CITY	47	—
191	Tug Valley ARH Skilled Nursing Facility	8.2%	98.8	A	KY	South Williamson	34	—
192	LEGACY ESTATE LONG TERM CARE	8.2%	98.8	A	TX	COMANCHE	100	—
193	ARKANSAS VETERANS HOME AT FAYETTEVILLE	8.2%	98.7	B	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	90	—
194	MUNDAY NURSING CENTER	8.2%	98.7	A	TX	MUNDAY	61	KNOX COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
195	CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PHYSICIANS HOSP MED CTR S N F	8.1%	98.7	A	NY	PLATTSBURGH	95	THE UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT HEALTH NETWORK INC
196	BLEDSOE COUNTY NURSING HOME	8.1%	98.7	A	TN	PIKEVILLE	50	—
197	The Forest At Duke Inc	8.1%	98.7	A	NC	Durham	4	—
198	SAINT SIMEONS EPISCOPAL HOME	8.1%	98.7	B	OK	TULSA	109	—
199	ST. MARY'S NURSING CENTER INC	8.1%	98.7	A	MD	LEONARDTOWN	160	—
200	Memorial Community Care	8.0%	98.7	B	NE	Aurora	48	—

Showing 151–200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.