Reads as: riskier than 82.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
ROGERS MICHAEL
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NE median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.16
2.88
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.42
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.37
2.75
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.08
2.96
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.1
2.16
0.29
0.58
1.29
2.37
0.0%
2025Q3
92
37.8
2.04
0.38
0.43
1.22
2.15
2.2%
2025Q2
91
37.8
1.91
0.33
0.46
1.12
1.82
0.0%
2025Q1
90
37.6
1.97
0.31
0.49
1.16
2.08
0.0%
2024Q4
92
37.8
1.93
0.35
0.52
1.07
1.99
0.0%
2024Q3
92
38.9
1.92
0.36
0.40
1.16
1.82
0.0%
2024Q2
91
38.5
2.04
0.33
0.49
1.23
1.98
0.0%
2024Q1
91
40.1
1.87
0.42
0.35
1.10
2.02
0.5%
2023Q4
92
39.7
1.80
0.41
0.42
0.97
1.79
0.0%
2023Q3
92
37.6
1.86
0.36
0.46
1.03
1.75
0.0%
2023Q2
91
36.5
1.87
0.39
0.39
1.10
1.83
0.0%
2023Q1
90
38.8
1.69
0.36
0.29
1.04
1.71
0.0%
2022Q4
92
38.3
1.81
0.39
0.25
1.17
1.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
38.0
2.02
0.33
0.32
1.37
1.92
0.9%
2022Q2
91
36.9
2.10
0.17
0.48
1.45
2.15
6.5%
2022Q1
90
39.9
2.03
0.20
0.55
1.28
2.02
19.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 9E × 3F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-10
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2025-08-22
2025-07-10
Health
F0923
Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both.
E
2025-08-22
2024-07-18
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2024-08-16
2024-07-18
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2024-08-16
2024-07-18
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-08-16
2024-07-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-08-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AUSTAD, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
BRESCIANI, DEAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-06-13
current
pecos_ownership
FLUIT, JOEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOCKS, MATTHEW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOOP, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
MELLAND, HELEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
MIDDLETON, AIMEE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON, TONY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1991-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORMAN, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSEN, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-13
current
pecos_ownership
SCHEMA, NATHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMITH, DARRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WOOTEN, SCOTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-25
current
pecos_ownership
SANFORD
OTHER
100%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT PETERSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AIMEE MIDDLETON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRELL SCHMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID AUSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEAN BRESCIANI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-06-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN MELLAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL FLUIT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA NORMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW HOCKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ROGERS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN SCHEMA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT WOOTEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS KOOP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONY MORRISON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1991-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$951,750
—
—
—
$2,220
1
—
2023-12-31
$820,143
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$781,320
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$784,263
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$821,004
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 31129
fmr
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31129
acs median gross
1
$493
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31129
fmr
1
$732
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31129
acs median gross
2
$636
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31129
fmr
2
$961
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31129
acs median gross
3
$549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31129
fmr
3
$1,174
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31129
fmr
4
$1,284
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31129
acs median gross
$585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68978
acs median gross
1
$489
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68978
acs median gross
2
$704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68978
acs median gross
3
$678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68978
acs median gross
$663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 68978
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 110
1
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 90
1
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
safmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 110
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 90
3
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
safmr
3
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 110
4
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
payment standard 90
4
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68978
safmr
4
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.