Composite
95.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 87.9 | 85.2 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 37.67 | in index |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | 95.8 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 34.21 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.5 | 15.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 0.11 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 15.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 76.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 85.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 85.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 85.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 35.00 | +0.68 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | +0.22 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 35.00 | -5.06 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 0.00 | +0.90 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.33 | -0.58 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | -0.51 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.24 | +0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.24 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.07 | 3.12 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.31 | 3.34 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 39.1 | 2.24 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 1.39 | 2.07 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 34.3 | 2.45 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 1.55 | 2.39 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Fine | $12,968 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-09-04 | Fine | $17,604 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2026-04-27 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2026-03-20 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | E | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | G | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | D | 2025-08-22 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-08-22 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | E | 2025-08-22 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-01-03 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-01-03 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LARSEN, KOLE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2024-07-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WHITE ASH LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2024-02-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LAKE, BRANDY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-07-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MACEWEN, JEFFREY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-07-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OLMSTEAD, STACEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 55% | 2024-02-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHARLY BELLO FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 35% | 2024-02-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WALTER MYERS | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 26% | 2024-02-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JARED SWAIN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 17% | 2024-02-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KOLE LARSEN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2024-07-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRANDY LAKE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-07-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY MACEWEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-07-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STACEY OLMSTEAD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2026-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | NORTHERN MONTANA CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 135 | NORTHERN MONTANA CARE CENTER INC |
| 2023-10-01 | RIVER RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 129 | RIVER RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | ASPEN MEADOWS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | ASPEN MEADOWS SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | LIVINGSTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | LIVINGSTON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | POLSON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 70 | POLSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | MISSOULA HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 53 | MISSOULA SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | LAUREL HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | LAUREL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | HOT SPRINGS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | KALISPELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 140 | KALISPELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | NORTHERN PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 41 | NORTHERN PINES REHABILITATION AND NURSING |
| 2023-07-01 | BILLINGS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 100 | BILLINGS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | VALLE VISTA REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 101 | VALLE VISTA REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 30095 | fmr | 0 | $884 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30095 | acs median gross | 1 | $561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30095 | fmr | 1 | $958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30095 | acs median gross | 2 | $945 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30095 | fmr | 2 | $1,257 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30095 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,383 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30095 | fmr | 3 | $1,748 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30095 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,396 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 30095 | fmr | 4 | $2,109 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 30095 | acs median gross | $961 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 30095 | acs recent mover gross | $949 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 59019 | acs median gross | 1 | $555 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 59019 | acs median gross | 2 | $940 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 59019 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,633 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 59019 | acs median gross | $936 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 59019 | acs recent mover gross | $945 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | safmr | 0 | $920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | safmr | 1 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | safmr | 2 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | safmr | 3 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,200 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 59019 | safmr | 4 | $2,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |