Ownership-change pipeline
Distress Radar
Universe
15,359
active SNFs, scored
Model
v0.1
p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only
Top decile captures
95.4%
of actual next-12m terminations on holdout
Base rate
0.6%
observed 12m termination rate, training panels
Ranked by termination probability
1–50| # | Facility | p(exit 12m) | Percentile | Grade | State | City | Beds | Chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCANDINAVIAN HOME INC | 54.7% | 100.0 | A | RI | CRANSTON | 74 | — |
| 2 | BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS | 37.9% | 100.0 | C | OK | ALVA | 80 | — |
| 3 | Blue Valley Lutheran Nursing Home | 36.5% | 100.0 | C | NE | Hebron | 64 | — |
| 4 | PRESBYTERIAN HOME FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INC | 35.1% | 100.0 | A | NY | NEW HARTFORD | 242 | — |
| 5 | LAURIE CARE CENTER | 32.4% | 100.0 | B | MO | GRAVOIS MILLS | 108 | — |
| 6 | RIVERCREST LONG TERM CARE | 26.4% | 100.0 | A | MA | W CONCORD | 151 | — |
| 7 | Majestic Care of Beckley | 26.1% | 100.0 | C | WV | BECKLEY | 199 | — |
| 8 | STEPHENSON NURSING CENTER | 25.7% | 100.0 | B | IL | FREEPORT | 148 | — |
| 9 | Nye Summit | 25.5% | 100.0 | B | NE | Louisville | 61 | — |
| 10 | GOOD SHEPHERD CARE CENTER | 24.6% | 99.9 | B | MO | VERSAILLES | 117 | — |
| 11 | The Wartburg Home | 24.2% | 99.9 | B | NY | MOUNT VERNON | 210 | — |
| 12 | TRINITY WOODS, INC. | 23.9% | 99.9 | B | OK | TULSA | 84 | — |
| 13 | SIMPSON HOUSE INC | 23.9% | 99.9 | B | PA | PHILADELPHIA | 142 | — |
| 14 | PRAIRIE MISSION RETIREMENT VILLAGE | 23.8% | 99.9 | B | KS | SAINT PAUL | 61 | — |
| 15 | MOOSEHAVEN | 23.6% | 99.9 | B | FL | ORANGE PARK | 72 | — |
| 16 | MONROE MANOR | 23.1% | 99.9 | C | MO | PARIS | 119 | — |
| 17 | Manistee County Medical Care Facility | 21.8% | 99.9 | B | MI | Manistee | 78 | — |
| 18 | Parkview Haven Nursing Home | 21.2% | 99.9 | B | NE | Deshler | 49 | — |
| 19 | KATHERINE LUTHER RESIDENTIAL HLTH CARE & REHAB | 19.9% | 99.9 | D | NY | CLINTON | 280 | — |
| 20 | The Sharon at Southpark | 19.7% | 99.9 | A | NC | Charlotte | 19 | — |
| 21 | DIVERSICARE OF COPPER BASIN | 19.5% | 99.9 | C | TN | COPPERHILL | 135 | — |
| 22 | MOWEAQUA REHAB & HCC | 19.5% | 99.9 | B | IL | MOWEAQUA | 70 | — |
| 23 | HOLIDAY HILL INC | 19.5% | 99.9 | B | TX | COLEMAN | 106 | — |
| 24 | RICHLAND CARE CENTER INC | 19.1% | 99.9 | A | MO | RICHLAND | 86 | — |
| 25 | TOWN OF VICI NURSING HOME | 19.1% | 99.8 | C | OK | VICI | 73 | — |
| 26 | Jennie B Richmond Chaffee Nursing Home Company Inc | 18.9% | 99.8 | A | NY | SPRINGVILLE | 80 | — |
| 27 | New England Homes for the Deaf, Inc | 18.6% | 99.8 | A | MA | DANVERS | 81 | — |
| 28 | HIGHLANDS AT WYOMISSING | 18.6% | 99.8 | A | PA | WYOMISSING | 80 | — |
| 29 | Benjamin Healthcare Center | 18.5% | 99.8 | F | MA | BOSTON | 205 | — |
| 30 | THE HSC PEDIATRIC SKILLED NURSING FACILITY | 18.4% | 99.8 | A | DC | WASHINGTON | 16 | — |
| 31 | ESSENTIA HEALTH GRACE HOME | 18.2% | 99.8 | A | MN | GRACEVILLE | 30 | — |
| 32 | EL ENCANTO HEALTHCARE CENTER | 18.0% | 99.8 | C | CA | CITY OF INDUSTRY | 185 | — |
| 33 | The Arbor | 18.0% | 99.8 | A | NC | Pittsboro | 16 | — |
| 34 | ROLLING FIELDS, INC | 18.0% | 99.8 | C | PA | CONNEAUTVILLE | 181 | — |
| 35 | LONGHORN VILLAGE | 17.9% | 99.8 | B | TX | AUSTIN | 60 | — |
| 36 | HILLCREST HOME | 17.9% | 99.8 | A | IL | GENESEO | 99 | — |
| 37 | KIRBY PINES MANOR | 17.6% | 99.8 | A | TN | MEMPHIS | 120 | — |
| 38 | SHIRKEY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER | 17.5% | 99.8 | B | MO | RICHMOND | 197 | — |
| 39 | Stacyville Community Nursing Home | 17.4% | 99.8 | B | IA | Stacyville | 34 | — |
| 40 | BAPTIST HOMES OF SHELBINA | 17.2% | 99.8 | C | MO | SHELBINA | 120 | — |
| 41 | RUTH WILSON HURLEY MANOR | 17.1% | 99.7 | A | OK | COALGATE | 75 | — |
| 42 | NEW COMMUNITY EXTENDED CARE FACILITY | 16.9% | 99.7 | D | NJ | NEWARK | 180 | — |
| 43 | Black Mountain Neuro-Medical Treatment Center | 16.8% | 99.7 | A | NC | Black Mountain | 163 | — |
| 44 | BEAVER COUNTY NURSING HOME | 16.5% | 99.7 | C | OK | BEAVER | 62 | — |
| 45 | ALLEN MORGAN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | 16.5% | 99.7 | A | TN | MEMPHIS | 104 | — |
| 46 | Strand-Kjorsvig Community Rest Home | 16.3% | 99.7 | B | SD | ROSLYN | 35 | — |
| 47 | ST LUKE COMMUNITY NURSING HOME | 16.1% | 99.7 | A | MT | RONAN | 75 | — |
| 48 | RIVERSIDE REST HOME | 16.0% | 99.7 | A | NH | DOVER | 215 | — |
| 49 | CLARK COUNTY NURSING HOME | 15.8% | 99.7 | C | MO | KAHOKA | 99 | — |
| 50 | OAK WOODS HOME FOR THE ELDERLY | 15.4% | 99.7 | B | LA | MER ROUGE | 119 | — |
Movers — largest changes between published composite scores
15| Facility | State | Setting | Previous | Current | Δ | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crouse Community Center Inc | NY | adult day | 0.0 | 98.5 | +98.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 98.3 | 5.4 | -92.9 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES | FL | home health | 98.3 | 6.3 | -92.0 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 97.2 | 6.3 | -90.9 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME HEART FLORIDA | FL | home health | 97.7 | 7.4 | -90.3 | 2026-07-28 |
| VITALCARING GROUP | FL | home health | 98.1 | 10.4 | -87.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS | FL | home health | 90.6 | 3.0 | -87.6 | 2026-07-28 |
| RIGHT AT HOME | FL | home health | 93.8 | 8.2 | -85.6 | 2026-07-28 |
| SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS | FL | home health | 6.3 | 91.0 | +84.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE | FL | home health | 98.9 | 16.2 | -82.7 | 2026-07-28 |
| BAYSHORE HOME CARE | FL | home health | 97.6 | 15.1 | -82.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST | FL | home health | 97.8 | 15.6 | -82.2 | 2026-07-28 |
| HOME INSTEAD | FL | home health | 6.3 | 88.5 | +82.2 | 2026-07-28 |
| ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST | FL | home health | 97.1 | 15.6 | -81.5 | 2026-07-28 |
| ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE | FL | home health | 16.3 | 97.6 | +81.3 | 2026-07-28 |
Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.