Composite
64.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 99.9 | 98.5 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 29.97 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 43.7 | 32.6 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 13.11 | in index |
| chow risk | 62.6 | 62.2 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 9.39 | in index |
| staffing risk | 5.6 | 5.7 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 1.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 99.5 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 98.5 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 18.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 32.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 5.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 94.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 74.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 83.4 | F | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 97.7 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 5.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 5.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.23 | +1.36 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.76 | -0.34 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.23 | +2.19 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.76 | -0.65 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.23 | -0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.76 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.50 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.87 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 42.4 | 4.76 | 0.67 | 1.31 | 2.79 | 4.50 | 12.2% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 41.8 | 4.85 | 0.66 | 1.36 | 2.83 | 4.47 | 11.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 38.6 | 5.08 | 0.68 | 1.51 | 2.89 | 4.80 | 11.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 44.1 | 4.48 | 0.58 | 1.23 | 2.67 | 4.25 | 10.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 39.9 | 4.74 | 0.63 | 1.44 | 2.66 | 4.47 | 6.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 38.3 | 4.92 | 0.67 | 1.59 | 2.65 | 4.84 | 13.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 39.1 | 5.26 | 0.60 | 1.90 | 2.76 | 4.91 | 15.9% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 33.9 | 5.67 | 0.82 | 1.74 | 3.11 | 5.24 | 14.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 31.5 | 5.65 | 0.78 | 1.74 | 3.12 | 5.44 | 13.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 35.3 | 5.37 | 0.72 | 1.71 | 2.94 | 5.01 | 17.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 34.4 | 5.09 | 0.73 | 1.49 | 2.87 | 4.75 | 9.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 33.8 | 5.21 | 0.74 | 1.45 | 3.03 | 4.96 | 5.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 35.1 | 5.14 | 0.74 | 1.51 | 2.90 | 4.79 | 3.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 36.0 | 5.03 | 0.68 | 1.56 | 2.79 | 4.94 | 2.8% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 41.1 | 4.80 | 0.62 | 1.51 | 2.66 | 4.64 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 47.9 | 4.46 | 0.56 | 1.43 | 2.47 | 4.34 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2026-02-16 |
| 2026-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2026-02-16 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | E | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-07-06 |
| 2025-03-26 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-03-26 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | D | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2024-07-12 |
| 2024-06-21 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-07-21 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-14 | Health · complaint | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-07-13 |
| 2023-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-07-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDUSTRY CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALVO, KENNETH | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2010-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALVO, KENNETH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-01-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HSIEH, XAVIER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-03-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PEREZ, DAVID | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2012-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID PEREZ | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2012-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH CALVO | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2010-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH CALVO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-01-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| XAVIER HSIEH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-03-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,308 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,697 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,054 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,815 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91745 | acs median gross | $2,299 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91745 | acs recent mover gross | $2,574 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,321 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,899 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | safmr | 0 | $2,110 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,596 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,124 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | safmr | 1 | $2,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,234 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,646 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | safmr | 2 | $2,940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,103 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,357 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | safmr | 3 | $3,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,565 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,735 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91745 | safmr | 4 | $4,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |