Composite
27.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 86.5 | 73.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.96 | in index |
| billing conduct | 41.0 | 35.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.46 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 18.2 | 11.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.20 | in index |
| chow risk | 35.0 | 33.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.04 | in index |
| staffing risk | 10.6 | 10.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.04 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 35.9 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 42.1 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 73.3 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 11.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 85.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 65.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.1 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 73.2 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 11.8 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 11.8 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 10.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.82 | -1.67 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.88 | -0.52 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.33 | -0.26 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.88 | -0.54 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.33 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.82 | -0.27 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.33 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.99 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.46 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 126.4 | 4.33 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 2.80 | 3.99 | 15.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 126.5 | 4.09 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 2.64 | 3.84 | 9.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 120.5 | 4.06 | 0.58 | 0.82 | 2.66 | 3.83 | 4.8% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 124.1 | 4.21 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 2.83 | 3.90 | 12.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 120.4 | 4.01 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 2.66 | 3.77 | 20.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 107.7 | 3.87 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 2.54 | 3.64 | 14.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 100.0 | 3.95 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 2.54 | 3.61 | 17.2% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 100.6 | 3.93 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 2.50 | 3.52 | 16.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 100.1 | 3.88 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 2.52 | 3.46 | 15.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 101.8 | 3.96 | 0.60 | 0.76 | 2.60 | 3.58 | 19.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 103.3 | 3.91 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 2.61 | 3.59 | 28.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 106.0 | 3.65 | 0.53 | 0.72 | 2.39 | 3.36 | 29.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 97.7 | 3.90 | 0.58 | 0.71 | 2.61 | 3.67 | 22.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 100.1 | 3.85 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 2.54 | 3.61 | 17.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 97.6 | 3.82 | 0.49 | 0.87 | 2.46 | 3.60 | 7.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 93.6 | 4.10 | 0.58 | 0.96 | 2.56 | 3.83 | 3.7% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-12-09 |
| 2025-03-12 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-12-11 |
| 2024-10-09 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-10-11 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-09-18 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-06-03 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2023-06-29 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-08-04 |
| 2023-06-29 | Health · complaint | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-08-04 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | L | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | F | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2022-04-19 |
| 2022-02-23 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2022-04-19 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-08-09 |
| 2019-07-17 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2019-08-09 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICHOL, JOSHUA | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SUCHOMEL, SCOTT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PENYACSEK, MATTHEW | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOSHUA NICHOL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT SUCHOMEL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MATTHEW PENYACSEK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-01 | — | SOQUEL CARE LLC | SANTA CRUZ SKILLED NURSING CENTER INC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTEthis facility | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,710 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | fmr | 0 | $3,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,859 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | fmr | 1 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,376 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | fmr | 2 | $4,214 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,925 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | fmr | 3 | $5,377 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,130 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | fmr | 4 | $5,659 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06087 | acs median gross | $2,264 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06087 | acs recent mover gross | $2,881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,599 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,791 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,737 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,337 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,071 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 95062 | acs median gross | $2,427 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 95062 | acs recent mover gross | $3,213 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $4,103 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $3,357 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | safmr | 0 | $3,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $4,257 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $3,483 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | safmr | 1 | $3,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $5,434 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $4,446 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | safmr | 2 | $4,940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $6,930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $5,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | safmr | 3 | $6,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $7,293 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $5,967 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 95062 | safmr | 4 | $6,630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |