142 SHELBY PLAZA ROAD, SHELBINA, MO 63468 · CCN 265694
Composite
84.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 84.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.92
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.18
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
58.1
3.10
0.30
0.38
2.42
2.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
56.9
3.55
0.38
0.39
2.79
3.43
0.0%
2025Q2
91
57.8
3.03
0.33
0.35
2.35
2.82
0.0%
2025Q1
90
59.4
3.06
0.34
0.51
2.22
2.92
0.0%
2024Q3
92
61.1
2.81
0.43
0.68
1.70
2.43
0.0%
2024Q2
91
58.8
2.67
0.25
0.65
1.76
2.70
0.0%
2024Q1
91
59.7
2.51
0.15
0.57
1.79
2.45
0.2%
2023Q4
92
62.4
2.51
0.19
0.66
1.66
2.19
0.0%
2023Q3
92
59.1
2.83
0.15
0.80
1.89
2.73
0.0%
2023Q2
91
58.2
2.96
0.32
0.86
1.78
3.00
0.0%
2023Q1
90
58.4
2.97
0.38
0.75
1.83
2.98
0.0%
2022Q4
92
56.7
3.17
0.38
0.89
1.90
3.00
0.0%
2022Q3
92
57.9
3.12
0.28
0.90
1.94
2.68
0.0%
2022Q2
91
61.7
2.72
0.39
0.71
1.63
2.39
0.0%
2022Q1
90
62.9
2.35
0.32
0.80
1.23
2.29
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0728
Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training.
D
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
E
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-08-13
2025-07-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-08-13
2025-05-16
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-13
2025-04-08
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-05-08
2025-04-08
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-13
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2024-04-14
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-04-15
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2024-03-28
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
F
2024-04-23
2023-09-13
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
E
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-10-28
2023-09-13
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2023-10-28
2023-07-20
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2023-08-24
2019-12-20
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2020-01-25
2019-12-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2020-01-25
2019-12-20
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2020-01-25
2019-12-20
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2020-01-25
2019-12-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
F
2020-01-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ANGLES, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
EDRIS, ALEXANDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
HAWKINS, LEWIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
LACKEY, KATHRYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, JERRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1999-12-14
current
pecos_ownership
PERRIGO, JULIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-10-09
current
pecos_ownership
SALT RIVER NURSING HOME DISTRICT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
WILT, LORI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
YOST, SHELLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
JULIA PERRIGO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
2%
2017-10-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHRYN LACKEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
2%
2009-06-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEWIS HAWKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
2%
2002-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI WILT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
2%
2017-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRY MYERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
1%
1999-12-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLY YOST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2008-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDRA EDRIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK ANGLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29205
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29205
acs median gross
1
$398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
fmr
1
$703
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29205
acs median gross
2
$638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29205
acs median gross
3
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
fmr
3
$1,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29205
acs median gross
4
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
fmr
4
$1,429
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29205
acs median gross
5
$694
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
acs median gross
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29205
acs recent mover gross
$555
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63468
acs median gross
1
$488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63468
acs median gross
2
$610
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63468
acs median gross
3
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63468
acs median gross
$729
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63468
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 110
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 90
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
safmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 110
4
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
payment standard 90
4
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63468
safmr
4
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.