1701 PARK AVENUE, ORANGE PARK, FL 32073 · CCN 106077
Composite
35.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
72
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 35.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
THOMPSON WILLIAM
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.88
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.82
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.91
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
29.6
4.88
0.45
0.95
3.48
4.82
0.0%
2025Q3
92
28.5
5.39
0.73
0.89
3.77
5.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
26.0
3.85
0.63
0.73
2.49
0.28
0.0%
2025Q1
90
26.0
3.40
0.57
0.56
2.27
0.13
0.0%
2024Q4
92
27.8
3.32
0.34
0.62
2.35
3.24
0.0%
2024Q3
92
26.9
5.65
0.56
1.19
3.90
5.41
0.0%
2024Q2
91
25.4
5.82
0.81
0.94
4.08
5.60
0.5%
2024Q1
91
29.3
4.65
0.56
0.75
3.34
4.31
0.1%
2023Q2
91
24.9
6.50
0.88
1.48
4.14
6.01
0.0%
2023Q1
90
25.2
6.00
0.94
0.99
4.06
5.70
0.0%
2022Q4
92
20.9
7.11
1.50
0.75
4.86
6.85
0.0%
2022Q3
92
24.5
6.53
1.09
1.06
4.38
5.97
0.0%
2022Q2
91
28.3
5.76
0.89
1.08
3.79
5.41
0.0%
2022Q1
90
32.6
5.12
0.89
0.93
3.30
4.65
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5
D × 4F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2022-09-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-10-01
2021-02-25
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
F
2021-03-25
2021-02-25
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-03-25
2021-02-25
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2021-03-25
2021-02-25
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2021-03-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARROLL, TRACY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
EMREY, BARBARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
GROOMS, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
HAMILTON, PAUL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
HART, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
JEWELL, BRENDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-10-03
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, KARYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
KERN, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEYSER, LURTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
MASOPOST, BRUCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
MCLAUGHLIN, SUSAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
ONEAL, DAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, KRISTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
REITER, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDS, LEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
SEATON, CRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHENS, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, HELEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, KEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
TIPPINS, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-11-28
current
pecos_ownership
TREADWELL, TERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA EMREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA JEWELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE MASOPOST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRISTINA SEATON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAN ONEAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN TAYLOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN REITER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARYN JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTIN PETERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEE RICHARDS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LURTY KEYSER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL STEPHENS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL HAMILTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT HART
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT KERN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN GROOMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN MCLAUGHLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY TREADWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY CARROLL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM THOMPSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM TIPPINS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-11-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12019
acs median gross
0
$1,289
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
fmr
0
$1,355
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12019
acs median gross
1
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
fmr
1
$1,382
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12019
acs median gross
2
$1,394
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
fmr
2
$1,658
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12019
acs median gross
3
$1,647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
fmr
3
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12019
acs median gross
4
$2,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
fmr
4
$2,561
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12019
acs median gross
5
$2,526
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
acs median gross
$1,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12019
acs recent mover gross
$1,776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
0
$1,346
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
1
$1,269
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
2
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
3
$1,751
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
4
$1,847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs median gross
$1,472
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32073
acs recent mover gross
$1,721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32073
payment standard 110
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 90
0
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
safmr
0
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 110
1
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 90
1
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
safmr
1
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 110
2
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 90
2
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
safmr
2
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 110
3
$2,222
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 90
3
$1,818
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
safmr
3
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 110
4
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
payment standard 90
4
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32073
safmr
4
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.