1505 East Parkdale Avenue, Manistee, MI 49660 · CCN 235003
Composite
34.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
78
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 34.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.22
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.45
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.87
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.36
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.6
5.22
1.45
0.19
3.58
4.87
0.0%
2025Q3
92
36.8
4.86
1.29
0.16
3.40
4.39
0.0%
2025Q2
91
37.7
4.93
1.26
0.16
3.51
4.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
40.9
4.21
1.05
0.18
2.99
3.96
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.5
2.72
0.68
0.12
1.93
2.64
0.0%
2024Q3
92
48.0
3.52
0.87
0.19
2.46
3.13
0.0%
2024Q2
91
50.4
3.82
0.80
0.36
2.67
3.43
0.0%
2024Q1
91
50.4
3.64
0.81
0.25
2.59
3.45
0.0%
2023Q4
92
44.8
4.40
1.09
0.34
2.98
3.79
0.0%
2023Q3
92
45.0
4.09
1.04
0.33
2.72
3.63
0.0%
2023Q2
91
42.4
4.01
0.88
0.34
2.79
3.63
0.0%
2023Q1
90
39.9
4.16
0.85
0.40
2.90
3.84
0.0%
2022Q4
92
42.5
3.68
0.84
0.33
2.51
3.47
0.0%
2022Q3
92
44.0
3.85
0.81
0.28
2.76
3.69
0.0%
2022Q2
91
42.7
3.76
0.85
0.32
2.58
3.62
0.0%
2022Q1
90
42.3
3.71
0.85
0.39
2.46
3.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
C × 1D × 9E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-04
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-12-29
2024-10-09
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0659
Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-04
2024-10-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-11-04
2023-11-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-12-12
2023-11-15
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-12-12
2023-11-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-12-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIELSKI, LARRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-11-10
current
pecos_ownership
CABOT, CASSANDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
COLE, SHANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
COLEMAN, JOE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
FALK, CRYSTAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-26
current
pecos_ownership
HILLIARD-JOHNSON, MELLISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
MANISTEE COUNTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
MCCANN, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
MCELRATH, HATTIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEAL, TRACY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-21
current
pecos_ownership
PARKES, DOUGLAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFLEY, JILLIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-19
current
pecos_ownership
SEKURIS, DAWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
SULLIVAN, RYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-18
current
pecos_ownership
SULLIVAN, RYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, BETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
WISSNER, JACKIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
BETH TAYLOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASSANDRA CABOT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRYSTAL FALK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN SEKURIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS PARKES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HATTIE MCELRATH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACKIE WISSNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JILLIAN SCHLAFLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOE COLEMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY BIELSKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-11-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELLISSA HILLIARD-JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MCCANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN SULLIVAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN SULLIVAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON COLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY NEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26101
fmr
0
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26101
acs median gross
1
$596
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26101
fmr
1
$799
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26101
acs median gross
2
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26101
fmr
2
$1,048
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26101
acs median gross
3
$968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26101
fmr
3
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26101
acs median gross
4
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26101
fmr
4
$1,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26101
acs median gross
$842
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49660
acs median gross
1
$534
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49660
acs median gross
2
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49660
acs median gross
3
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49660
acs median gross
4
$903
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49660
acs median gross
$799
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49660
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 110
4
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
payment standard 90
4
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49660
safmr
4
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.