Composite
84.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 37E624
C
CALLAWAY NURSING HOME
snfOK
1300 WEST LINDSEY, SULPHUR, OK 73086 · CCN 37E624
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
86
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 84.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing4Penalties0Deficiencies30Licensure0Ownership0Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent34
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 99.7 | 99.7 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 35.61 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 51.7 | 41.1 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 22.16 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 8.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 16.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 41.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 40.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 40.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
16.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
99.7
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contract staffing share | 0.74 | +1.05 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.46 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.29 | +0.35 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
8.6%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
98.9
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.88 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.29 | +0.81 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.74 | +0.71 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.70 | +0.30 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
4| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OK median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 1.29 | 2.78 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.25 | 2.72 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 1.31 | 2.80 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 46.4 | 1.29 | 0.26 | 0.69 | 0.35 | 1.25 | 73.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 48.2 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 1.07 | 2.20 | 83.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 48.3 | 2.35 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 1.74 | 2.52 | 79.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 47.0 | 0.59 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 38.3% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
30D × 16E × 10F × 3J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-05 |
| 2025-05-05 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-05 | Health · complaint | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-05-05 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2025-06-20 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2025-05-19 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2025-06-02 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | D | 2025-06-02 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2024-11-21 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-01-05 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-01-05 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-01-05 | Health · complaint | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | F | 2024-05-01 |
| 2024-01-05 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2024-03-01 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2023-01-13 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | D | 2023-01-13 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2023-01-13 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2023-01-13 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-01-13 |
| 2022-12-08 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | E | 2023-01-13 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
0No ownership edges on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — OK snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC | — | — | — | 104 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | THE COMMONS | — | — | — | 138 | COMMONS OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS | — | — | — | 80 | BEADLES OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | STIGLER NURSING & REHAB | — | — | — | 80 | HASKELL NURSING & REHAB LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | NOWATA NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 65 | NOWATA LTC LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | EASTGATE VILLAGE CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 110 | EASTGATE HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | Broadway Care & Rehab Center | — | — | — | 105 | BROADWAY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | FORT GIBSON CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | FORT GIBSON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE MANOR | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE MANOR MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE PARK | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE PARK MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | COWETA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | MITCHELL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 40099 | acs median gross | 0 | $858 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40099 | fmr | 0 | $731 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40099 | acs median gross | 1 | $665 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40099 | fmr | 1 | $758 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40099 | acs median gross | 2 | $864 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40099 | fmr | 2 | $994 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40099 | acs median gross | 3 | $984 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40099 | fmr | 3 | $1,227 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40099 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,165 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40099 | fmr | 4 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40099 | acs median gross | $881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 40099 | acs recent mover gross | $989 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | 0 | $872 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | 1 | $656 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | 2 | $872 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,040 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,189 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 73086 | acs median gross | $936 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 73086 | acs recent mover gross | $1,106 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $836 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | safmr | 0 | $760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | safmr | 1 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | safmr | 2 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,408 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,152 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | safmr | 3 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,422 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 73086 | safmr | 4 | $1,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.