Reads as: riskier than 44.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
CDW INVESTMENTS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PEASE BELL CPAS LLC
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.44
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.20
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.69
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.73
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.4
3.44
0.20
0.70
2.53
2.69
0.4%
2025Q3
92
81.7
3.02
0.19
0.60
2.23
2.80
0.5%
2025Q2
91
81.7
2.54
0.14
0.57
1.83
2.25
0.0%
2025Q1
90
78.2
2.61
0.14
0.54
1.93
2.25
0.0%
2024Q4
92
80.2
2.60
0.16
0.48
1.96
2.25
0.0%
2024Q3
92
79.8
2.39
0.16
0.46
1.77
2.37
0.0%
2024Q2
91
79.0
2.48
0.15
0.56
1.76
2.40
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.0
2.75
0.18
0.71
1.85
2.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
78.7
2.68
0.18
0.70
1.79
2.48
7.8%
2023Q3
92
76.4
2.91
0.15
0.81
1.95
2.56
5.6%
2023Q2
91
77.1
2.97
0.10
0.83
2.04
2.59
4.8%
2023Q1
90
77.3
2.92
0.10
0.83
2.00
2.56
6.3%
2022Q4
92
80.7
2.98
0.11
0.77
2.10
2.64
18.2%
2022Q3
92
73.8
2.75
0.12
0.77
1.86
2.37
12.9%
2022Q2
91
65.6
2.94
0.14
0.90
1.89
2.66
19.6%
2022Q1
90
68.9
2.74
0.15
0.81
1.78
2.39
29.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 17E × 5F × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-06-22
2025-02-06
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-03-19
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0646
Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2023-12-26
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-26
2022-04-22
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2022-05-27
2022-04-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-05-27
2022-04-22
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2022-05-27
2022-04-22
Health
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
E
2022-05-27
2022-04-22
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2022-05-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
OK4 EASTGATE REALCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OK4 EASTGATE REALCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-05-14
current
hcris_a_8_1
OK4 OPCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
MGM HEALTHCARE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
45%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CDW INVESTMENTS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
EASTGATE REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JFB OK TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, CYNTHIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, YAAKOV
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
KOSS, ALLEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
LAMBERT, GARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
LAMBERT, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
MIDWEST GERIATRIC MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
MM ACQUISITIONS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
NDF INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
OK SNF HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OK SNF INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OK SNF INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
OK4 PROPCO, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
PEASE BELL CPAS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
POLARIS HEALTH LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANT PRO REHAB, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHEAST VENTURES TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OK4 EASTGATE REALCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OK4 EASTGATE REALCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OK4 EASTGATE REALCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHAIM WINTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-10-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM WINTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2024-10-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAFTALI FRIEDMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2024-10-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
1026 ENTERPRISES II, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARUCH JEREMIAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
10-26 NATIONWIDE TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BCJ ENTERPRISES, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA JOHNSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY LAMBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY LAMBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$572,429
$332,044
—
—
$18,939
2
propco
2024-05-13
$363,837
$220,260
—
$66,059
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$1,238,337
$589,548
—
$411,033
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$1,302,238
$589,539
—
$473,662
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$1,327,719
$608,667
—
$464,180
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$1,316,623
$623,901
—
$476,554
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40101
acs median gross
0
$647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
fmr
0
$717
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40101
acs median gross
1
$649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
fmr
1
$722
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40101
acs median gross
2
$855
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
fmr
2
$947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40101
acs median gross
3
$985
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
fmr
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40101
acs median gross
4
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
fmr
4
$1,461
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40101
acs median gross
5
$1,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
acs median gross
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40101
acs recent mover gross
$903
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
0
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
1
$643
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
2
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
3
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
4
$1,208
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
5
$1,185
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs median gross
$890
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74403
acs recent mover gross
$1,048
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74403
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 110
2
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 90
2
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
safmr
2
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 110
4
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
payment standard 90
4
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74403
safmr
4
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.