Reads as: riskier than 28.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MORGAN CHRISTOPHER
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.12
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.00
3.17
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.17
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
112.7
3.12
0.35
0.76
2.02
3.00
12.2%
2025Q3
92
116.0
3.23
0.39
0.76
2.08
3.05
12.8%
2025Q2
91
115.7
3.21
0.41
0.85
1.95
2.97
9.3%
2025Q1
90
106.6
3.26
0.40
0.90
1.96
3.03
9.6%
2024Q4
92
108.0
3.12
0.28
0.93
1.91
2.82
10.8%
2024Q3
92
106.6
3.10
0.28
0.91
1.92
2.81
18.6%
2024Q2
91
104.7
2.92
0.34
0.83
1.75
2.64
9.4%
2024Q1
91
105.8
3.12
0.44
0.77
1.90
2.88
3.5%
2023Q4
92
112.4
2.91
0.41
0.68
1.82
2.73
3.2%
2023Q3
92
111.4
3.15
0.40
0.77
1.99
2.91
4.0%
2023Q2
91
108.6
3.19
0.43
0.73
2.03
3.00
5.1%
2023Q1
90
109.1
3.15
0.42
0.75
1.98
3.05
3.5%
2022Q4
92
107.1
3.42
0.36
0.83
2.22
3.27
2.0%
2022Q3
92
109.3
2.91
0.33
0.72
1.85
2.61
1.9%
2022Q2
91
108.2
2.94
0.33
0.77
1.84
2.47
4.2%
2022Q1
90
109.5
2.63
0.33
0.75
1.55
2.39
2.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
C × 1D × 13E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-01-06
2024-11-22
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-01-06
2024-11-22
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-01-06
2024-11-22
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-01-06
2024-11-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-01-06
2024-11-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-01-06
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0626
Permit a resident to return to the nursing home after hospitalization or therapeutic leave that exceeds bed-hold policy.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-08-09
2019-08-27
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2019-10-10
2019-08-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2019-10-10
2019-08-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-10-10
2019-08-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-10-10
2019-08-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-10-10
2018-06-06
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2018-07-21
2018-06-06
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2018-07-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURTON, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
DENSFORD, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DENSFORD, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
FARRELL, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, TRACE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
HODGES, LOIS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAUR, KIRANDEEP
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
KUBINEC, TRACY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KUBINEC, TRACY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
LANCASTER, HARRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, CHRISTINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORTENSEN, DENISE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROCHNOW, TERRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERLING, JUDITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
VIAR, WILLARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
VIAR, WILLARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BURTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE MORGAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HARRY LANCASTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES FARRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2019-11-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRANDEEP KAUR
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2010-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY PROCHNOW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACE HALL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2019-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENISE MORTENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH DENSFORD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH DENSFORD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDITH STERLING
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LOIS HODGES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY KUBINEC
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY KUBINEC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLARD VIAR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLARD VIAR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 24037
acs median gross
0
$1,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
fmr
0
$1,394
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24037
acs median gross
1
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
fmr
1
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24037
acs median gross
2
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
fmr
2
$1,833
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24037
acs median gross
3
$1,815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
fmr
3
$2,264
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24037
acs median gross
4
$2,300
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
fmr
4
$2,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24037
acs median gross
5
$2,248
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
acs median gross
$1,747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24037
acs recent mover gross
$1,904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs median gross
1
$1,276
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs median gross
2
$1,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs median gross
3
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs median gross
$1,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20650
acs recent mover gross
$2,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 20650
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 110
1
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 90
1
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
safmr
1
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 110
2
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 90
2
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
safmr
2
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 110
3
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 90
3
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
safmr
3
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 110
4
$3,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
payment standard 90
4
$2,763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20650
safmr
4
$3,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.