Composite
44.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 82.7 | 69.5 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 24.81 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | 26.9 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 11.31 | in index |
| staffing risk | 22.0 | 22.1 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 5.50 | in index |
| chow risk | 30.8 | 29.5 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 4.62 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 34.0 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 69.5 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 8.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 26.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 22.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.5 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.1 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 26.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 26.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 22.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 22.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.48 | +0.65 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.95 | -0.47 | |
| Occupancy | 0.64 | +0.46 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.48 | +0.44 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.85 | -0.27 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.85 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.51 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.27 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.08 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 57.6 | 3.85 | 0.51 | 1.04 | 2.30 | 3.27 | 47.9% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 56.9 | 4.63 | 0.52 | 1.26 | 2.85 | 4.14 | 61.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 49.6 | 5.23 | 0.58 | 1.22 | 3.42 | 4.61 | 63.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 49.2 | 5.27 | 0.64 | 1.22 | 3.42 | 4.56 | 58.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 48.3 | 4.80 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 3.33 | 4.28 | 60.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 47.3 | 5.61 | 0.17 | 1.57 | 3.87 | 4.84 | 65.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 47.1 | 6.49 | 0.32 | 1.72 | 4.44 | 5.60 | 63.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 46.4 | 6.33 | 0.39 | 1.80 | 4.13 | 5.20 | 59.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 49.7 | 5.76 | 0.34 | 1.40 | 4.02 | 4.94 | 58.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 52.6 | 4.99 | 0.38 | 1.11 | 3.50 | 4.17 | 48.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 55.8 | 4.33 | 0.32 | 1.29 | 2.72 | 3.50 | 48.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 66.2 | 5.50 | 0.33 | 1.54 | 3.62 | 4.65 | 65.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 66.4 | 4.82 | 0.41 | 1.32 | 3.08 | 4.01 | 64.8% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 68.1 | 4.86 | 0.54 | 1.27 | 3.05 | 4.16 | 60.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 61.5 | 5.11 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 3.08 | 4.42 | 41.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 60.6 | 4.87 | 0.57 | 1.27 | 3.03 | 4.17 | 24.7% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-20 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2024-01-26 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-02-25 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2022-10-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | E | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2022-11-21 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2022-11-15 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0888 | Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19 | E | 2022-11-15 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPPIELLO, PHILLIP | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-04-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KESNER, KATRINA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-05-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCALL, BUSTER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STATE OF ARKANSAS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2006-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUSTER MCCALL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATRINA KESNER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-05-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PHILLIP CAPPIELLO | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-04-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 0 | $756 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | fmr | 0 | $1,007 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 1 | $850 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | fmr | 1 | $1,115 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,030 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | fmr | 2 | $1,347 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,416 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | fmr | 3 | $1,873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,528 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | fmr | 4 | $2,213 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,267 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05143 | acs median gross | $1,071 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05143 | acs recent mover gross | $1,214 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | 0 | $793 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | 1 | $835 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | 2 | $993 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,365 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72703 | acs median gross | $1,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72703 | acs recent mover gross | $1,078 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | safmr | 0 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $972 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | safmr | 1 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,441 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | safmr | 2 | $1,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,002 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,638 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | safmr | 3 | $1,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,365 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72703 | safmr | 4 | $2,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |