450 S 9TH AVE, PIGGOTT, AR 72454 · CCN 045178 · chain STONEWALL HCG LLC
Composite
91.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
105
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 91.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
13
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.0 vs natl
LEVOVITZ YERUCHOM
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.5 vs natl
WEBSTER SHIMON
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.0 vs natl
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
WEBSTER SHIMON
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
74% fined
WEBSTER SHIMON
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
72% fined
LEVOVITZ YERUCHOM
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
S C HOLDINGS ILLINOIS LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
STONEWALL HCG LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
62% fined
CHANKIN KEVIN
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MERMELSTEIN MICHAEL
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LINCOLN HCG LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.00
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.99
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.00
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
30.5
3.00
0.27
0.83
1.90
2.99
0.0%
2025Q3
92
29.8
2.89
0.24
0.83
1.81
2.95
0.0%
2025Q2
91
28.5
3.41
0.22
1.07
2.12
3.29
0.0%
2025Q1
90
30.2
3.06
0.17
0.98
1.91
2.94
0.0%
2024Q4
92
29.2
3.65
0.31
1.26
2.07
3.37
5.1%
2024Q3
92
35.0
3.28
0.22
1.16
1.90
3.17
4.7%
2024Q2
91
36.0
3.07
0.23
1.03
1.81
2.80
0.0%
2024Q1
91
38.4
2.88
0.41
1.00
1.48
2.27
0.0%
2023Q4
92
38.8
3.15
0.56
0.90
1.69
2.70
0.0%
2023Q3
92
37.9
2.96
0.58
0.98
1.40
2.53
0.0%
2023Q2
91
34.4
2.74
0.36
0.89
1.50
2.55
0.0%
2023Q1
90
35.4
2.28
0.23
0.73
1.32
2.39
0.0%
2022Q4
92
38.6
2.22
0.21
0.52
1.49
2.26
0.0%
2022Q3
92
37.2
2.17
0.16
0.48
1.53
2.25
0.0%
2022Q2
91
35.8
2.21
0.23
0.57
1.41
2.00
0.0%
2022Q1
90
33.9
2.59
0.10
0.87
1.62
2.46
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
E
2025-09-25
2025-09-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-09-25
2025-09-09
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-09-25
2025-09-09
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2025-09-25
2025-09-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-25
2025-09-09
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
F
2025-09-25
2024-06-26
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2024-07-11
2024-06-26
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-17
2024-06-26
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
F
2024-07-17
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-06-26
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2024-06-26
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2024-06-26
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2024-06-26
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-06-26
2023-12-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-12-19
2023-12-15
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2023-12-19
2023-04-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-05-13
2023-04-13
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2023-05-13
2023-04-13
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2023-05-13
2023-04-13
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2023-05-13
2023-04-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-05-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAMPBELL PIGGOTT REALTY HOLDCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
63%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CAMPBELL PIGGOTT REALTY HOLDCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
63%
2023-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHANKIN, KEVIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLMES, NANCY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEVOVITZ, YERUCHOM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINCOLN HCG LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERMELSTEIN, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
S & C HOLDINGS ILLINOIS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STONEWALL HCG LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEBSTER, SHIMON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AHARON WEISS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVROHOM RIBIAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MERMELSTEIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON WEBSTER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YERUCHOM LEVOVITZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CHANKIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY HOLMES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$292,434
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2023-12-31
$216,288
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2021-06-30
$215,966
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05021
acs median gross
0
$453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
fmr
0
$658
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05021
acs median gross
1
$390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
fmr
1
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05021
acs median gross
2
$707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05021
acs median gross
3
$841
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
fmr
3
$1,191
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05021
acs median gross
4
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
fmr
4
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05021
acs median gross
$707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05021
acs recent mover gross
$746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72454
acs median gross
1
$535
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72454
acs median gross
2
$717
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72454
acs median gross
3
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72454
acs median gross
$739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72454
acs recent mover gross
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72454
payment standard 110
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 90
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
safmr
0
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 110
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 90
1
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
safmr
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 110
4
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
payment standard 90
4
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72454
safmr
4
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.