702 N DREW ST, STAR CITY, AR 71667 · CCN 045269 · chain ZCS AR OPCO LLC
Composite
89.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
95
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 89.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.0 vs natl
AKS AR OPCO LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.6 vs natl
MH AR OPCO LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.4 vs natl
HERZKA MATISYOHU
16 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
HARRISON JOHN
71 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.10
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.18
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.1
3.16
0.10
0.88
2.18
3.10
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.0
2.88
0.13
0.80
1.94
2.81
0.0%
2025Q2
91
82.5
2.85
0.13
0.83
1.88
2.81
0.0%
2025Q1
90
76.2
3.23
0.12
0.91
2.20
3.22
0.0%
2024Q4
92
72.7
3.53
0.12
0.95
2.46
3.50
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.1
3.51
0.10
0.89
2.52
3.37
0.0%
2024Q2
91
79.4
4.05
0.07
0.81
3.17
3.79
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.2
3.76
0.09
0.74
2.93
3.34
0.0%
2023Q4
92
83.3
3.62
0.11
0.74
2.76
3.21
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.4
3.81
0.17
0.81
2.83
3.38
0.0%
2023Q2
91
48.2
3.60
0.16
0.83
2.61
3.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.8
4.10
0.18
0.81
3.11
4.04
0.0%
2022Q4
92
48.9
4.41
0.15
0.83
3.42
4.16
14.3%
2022Q3
92
50.1
4.12
0.04
0.99
3.09
3.93
13.8%
2022Q2
91
53.8
4.29
0.12
0.72
3.45
4.00
28.5%
2022Q1
90
50.8
3.30
0.07
0.79
2.44
3.27
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 8E × 14F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-01-30
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-02-28
2025-01-30
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2025-02-28
2025-01-30
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-02-28
2025-01-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-02-28
2024-10-28
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-11-18
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-13
2024-01-05
Health
F0570
Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility.
E
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2024-01-20
2024-01-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-01-20
2023-11-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-12-08
2023-10-26
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-11-15
2022-10-27
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-11-21
2022-10-27
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-11-21
2022-10-27
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2022-11-21
2022-10-27
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
E
2022-11-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SOUTHWIND OPCO HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
AKS AR OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARDNER NURSING AND REHAB LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GARDNER NURSING AND REHAB LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-08-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HARRIS, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERZKA, MATISYOHU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MH AR OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS, JANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHEINBAUM, SHLOMO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHREIBER, ABRAHAM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ABRAHAM SCHREIBER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATISYOHU HERZKA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHLOMO SCHEINBAUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZCS AR OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARDNER NURSING AND REHAB LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-06-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JANE MOSS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN HARRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-06-14
hcris_a_8_1
WAGNON PLACE INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
WAGNON PLACE INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WAGNON PLACE INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-06-15
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
7
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-07-31
$454,057
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$778,384
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$463,876
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-05-31
$74,366
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$190,551
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$78,028
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-06-14
$153,787
—
—
$142,754
—
7
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05079
fmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05079
acs median gross
1
$350
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05079
fmr
1
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05079
acs median gross
2
$706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05079
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05079
acs median gross
3
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05079
fmr
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05079
acs median gross
4
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05079
fmr
4
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05079
acs median gross
$744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05079
acs recent mover gross
$738
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71667
acs median gross
1
$299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71667
acs median gross
2
$710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71667
acs median gross
3
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71667
acs median gross
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71667
acs recent mover gross
$738
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 71667
payment standard 110
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 90
0
$567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
safmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 110
1
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 90
1
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
safmr
1
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 110
2
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 90
2
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
safmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 110
3
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 90
3
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
safmr
3
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 110
4
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
payment standard 90
4
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71667
safmr
4
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.