Composite
40.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 95.6 | 85.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.06 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 36.2 | 25.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.35 | in index |
| staffing risk | 27.5 | 27.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 5.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 44.5 | 42.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.13 | in index |
| billing conduct | 17.5 | 21.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.04 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 21.6 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 60.3 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 85.5 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 8.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 25.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 27.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 83.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.3 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 84.5 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 27.6 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 27.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.59 | +0.31 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.59 | +0.66 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.71 | -0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.29 | -0.16 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.71 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.46 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.81 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 71.0 | 3.71 | 0.42 | 0.80 | 2.50 | 3.46 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 67.9 | 4.17 | 0.48 | 0.84 | 2.86 | 3.67 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 66.6 | 4.13 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 2.82 | 3.69 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 64.3 | 3.96 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 2.67 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 63.3 | 4.00 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 2.77 | 3.68 | 2.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 62.5 | 3.88 | 0.40 | 0.74 | 2.75 | 3.48 | 12.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 61.8 | 3.74 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 2.61 | 3.27 | 15.4% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 65.9 | 3.63 | 0.32 | 0.95 | 2.36 | 3.15 | 21.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 67.1 | 3.61 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 2.28 | 3.16 | 21.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 66.2 | 3.50 | 0.49 | 0.84 | 2.17 | 3.00 | 19.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 63.2 | 3.47 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 2.06 | 3.17 | 12.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 64.3 | 3.30 | 0.41 | 0.93 | 1.97 | 3.09 | 11.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 67.3 | 3.24 | 0.38 | 1.05 | 1.80 | 3.08 | 5.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 67.7 | 3.71 | 0.50 | 1.09 | 2.12 | 3.52 | 5.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 70.8 | 4.03 | 0.69 | 1.02 | 2.32 | 3.69 | 8.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 72.0 | 3.77 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.77 | 3.48 | 16.2% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-27 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-17 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-08-20 |
| 2025-07-17 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-08-20 |
| 2025-07-17 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2025-08-20 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-02-06 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | F | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0776 | Provide timely, approved x-ray services, or have an agreement with an approved provider to obtain them. | D | 2023-08-23 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-08-23 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELTA COUNTY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| DICKINSON COUNTY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| MENOMINEE COUNTY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEAN, FLORA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-02-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, DANA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-06-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, DANA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2021-06-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DANA SMITH | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2021-06-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| FLORA DEAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2025-02-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DANA SMITH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-06-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26109 | fmr | 0 | $697 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | 1 | $462 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26109 | fmr | 1 | $771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | 2 | $751 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26109 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | 3 | $920 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26109 | fmr | 3 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | 4 | $651 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26109 | fmr | 4 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | 5 | $728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26109 | acs median gross | $692 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26109 | acs recent mover gross | $857 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49874 | acs median gross | 1 | $372 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49874 | acs median gross | 2 | $579 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49874 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,042 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49874 | acs median gross | $450 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | safmr | 0 | $700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | safmr | 1 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | safmr | 3 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49874 | safmr | 4 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |