Composite
31.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 75.9 | 63.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.52 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 64.5 | 56.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.88 | in index |
| staffing risk | 25.2 | 25.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 4.85 | in index |
| chow risk | 35.9 | 40.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.14 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 57.3 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 63.6 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 9.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 56.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 25.3 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 57.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 37.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.0 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.4 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 56.8 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 56.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.55 | +0.75 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.89 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.55 | +0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.77 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.77 | 4.20 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.13 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.78 | 3.99 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.76 | 4.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 26.8 | 3.77 | 0.13 | 0.82 | 2.81 | 3.78 | 54.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 26.6 | 2.82 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 2.02 | 2.85 | 59.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 27.2 | 3.51 | 0.30 | 0.76 | 2.45 | 3.28 | 54.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 27.6 | 3.43 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 40.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 26.9 | 3.52 | 0.24 | 0.83 | 2.45 | 3.54 | 43.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 28.6 | 2.64 | 0.15 | 0.68 | 1.81 | 2.41 | 54.2% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 28.7 | 2.87 | 0.17 | 0.73 | 1.98 | 2.95 | 35.9% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 28.9 | 3.27 | 0.12 | 0.80 | 2.35 | 3.31 | 38.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 27.0 | 3.47 | 0.24 | 0.87 | 2.36 | 3.71 | 32.5% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 26.0 | 2.69 | 0.26 | 0.78 | 1.65 | 2.54 | 43.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 27.4 | 2.72 | 0.61 | 0.34 | 1.77 | 2.99 | 23.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 25.8 | 2.77 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 1.48 | 2.52 | 22.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 22.4 | 3.29 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 1.74 | 3.19 | 53.5% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 26.0 | 2.33 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 1.05 | 2.14 | 33.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 24.8 | 3.28 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 2.02 | 3.51 | 67.5% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-07 | Fine | $16,801 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-08-15 |
| 2024-11-12 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2025-01-01 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2024-04-26 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0559 | Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0659 | Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | D | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| 2023-02-10 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2023-04-01 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEHALEM BAY HEALTH DISTRICT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOBLE, JAMES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JENSEN, DANE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-01-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WEISSBACH, THEODORE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZAGATA, JOSEPH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DANE JENSEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2023-01-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES GOBLE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOSEPH ZAGATA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THEODORE WEISSBACH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | Mt. Tabor Health & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | MT TABOR SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | LAURELHURST POST ACUTE & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 159 | LAURELHURST SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SAINT HELENS POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 92 | MAVERICKS BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MT ANGEL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 93 | REX ROAD HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | VILLAGE HEALTH CARE | — | — | — | 106 | VILLAGE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | ROBISON JEWISH HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 92 | BOUNDARY STREET SNF, LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WILLOWBROOK POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 59 | WILLOWBROOK SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | REEDWOOD POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 64 | CRESTON SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | COTTAGE GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | COTTAGE GROVE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | FOREST GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 114 | FOREST GROVE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | EVERGREEN POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 55 | EVERGREEN SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | HOOD RIVER POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 100 | HOOD RIVER SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 41057 | acs median gross | 0 | $749 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 41057 | fmr | 0 | $1,016 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 41057 | acs median gross | 1 | $898 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 41057 | fmr | 1 | $1,136 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 41057 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,116 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 41057 | fmr | 2 | $1,405 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 41057 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,618 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 41057 | fmr | 3 | $1,954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 41057 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,427 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 41057 | fmr | 4 | $2,083 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 41057 | acs median gross | $1,246 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 41057 | acs recent mover gross | $1,232 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 97147 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,074 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 97147 | acs median gross | 2 | $998 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 97147 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,063 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 97147 | acs median gross | $994 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | safmr | 0 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | safmr | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,243 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,017 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | safmr | 2 | $1,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,422 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | safmr | 3 | $1,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,848 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,512 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 97147 | safmr | 4 | $1,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |