515 GRANT STREET, COTTAGE GROVE, OR 97424 · CCN 385152 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
25.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
80
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 25.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.98
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.80
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.06
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
65.5
3.98
0.25
0.87
2.87
3.80
35.0%
2025Q3
92
64.5
3.95
0.12
0.96
2.87
3.76
30.2%
2025Q2
91
60.4
3.93
0.15
1.00
2.78
3.64
25.5%
2025Q1
90
57.1
4.13
0.24
1.11
2.78
3.83
23.0%
2024Q4
92
53.0
4.60
0.36
1.05
3.19
4.17
16.5%
2024Q3
92
49.0
4.77
0.23
0.91
3.64
4.50
15.0%
2024Q2
91
47.8
4.28
0.15
0.83
3.29
4.01
8.8%
2024Q1
91
47.9
4.05
0.15
0.86
3.04
3.92
8.1%
2023Q4
92
46.5
4.12
0.26
0.92
2.93
3.95
10.5%
2023Q3
92
47.3
3.96
0.27
0.94
2.75
3.56
6.1%
2023Q2
91
46.9
3.58
0.26
0.92
2.40
3.28
4.9%
2023Q1
90
45.0
3.93
0.25
1.00
2.67
3.78
5.0%
2022Q4
92
39.8
4.11
0.16
1.11
2.84
3.62
5.1%
2022Q3
92
38.5
4.17
0.11
1.15
2.91
3.90
9.4%
2022Q2
91
40.5
4.05
0.15
1.12
2.79
3.89
18.8%
2022Q1
90
44.0
3.63
0.21
0.91
2.51
3.39
21.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-07-22
2025-06-27
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-07-23
2025-06-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-07-23
2024-10-16
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-10-02
2024-10-16
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-10-02
2024-03-08
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-04-01
2024-03-08
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-04-01
2024-03-08
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-04-01
2024-03-08
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-01
2024-03-08
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-04-01
2024-03-08
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2024-04-01
2022-11-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2022-12-29
2022-11-18
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2022-12-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COAST FORK LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
COAST FORK LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2023-09-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
BARR, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARR, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-29
current
pecos_ownership
COTTAGE GROVE 515 REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
POMPEY, KAREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLENKAMPF, VICTOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLENKAMPF, VICTOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-29
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COAST FORK LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COAST FORK LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COAST FORK LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BARR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BARR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN POMPEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICTOR WALLENKAMPF
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICTOR WALLENKAMPF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$194,432
—
$194,432
—
—
1
—
2024-08-31
$540,299
—
$384,100
$156,199
—
9
propco
2023-12-31
$877,586
—
$658,456
$219,130
—
9
propco
2022-12-31
$665,205
—
$520,909
$144,296
—
9
propco
2021-12-31
$1,238,716
$360,468
$359,861
$233,207
$144,332
9
propco
2020-12-31
$1,346,992
$360,468
$334,173
$322,012
$133,366
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41039
acs median gross
0
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
fmr
0
$1,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41039
acs median gross
1
$1,023
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
fmr
1
$1,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41039
acs median gross
2
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
fmr
2
$1,688
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41039
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
fmr
3
$2,348
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41039
acs median gross
4
$1,504
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
fmr
4
$2,832
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41039
acs median gross
5
$1,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
acs median gross
$1,355
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41039
acs recent mover gross
$1,532
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97424
acs median gross
1
$659
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97424
acs median gross
2
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97424
acs median gross
3
$1,505
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97424
acs median gross
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97424
acs recent mover gross
$1,559
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97424
payment standard 110
0
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 90
0
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
safmr
0
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 110
1
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 90
1
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
safmr
1
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 110
2
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 90
2
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
safmr
2
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 110
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 90
3
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
safmr
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 110
4
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
payment standard 90
4
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97424
safmr
4
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.