729 HENDERSON ROAD, HOOD RIVER, OR 97031 · CCN 385104 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
42.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
100
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 42.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.61
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.32
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.73
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
69.0
4.61
0.25
1.11
3.25
4.32
35.6%
2025Q3
92
68.1
3.94
0.28
0.65
3.01
3.78
34.8%
2025Q2
91
60.3
4.47
0.41
0.86
3.21
4.16
30.2%
2025Q1
90
59.3
4.11
0.38
0.84
2.89
3.81
31.8%
2024Q4
92
51.3
4.61
0.54
0.83
3.23
4.15
18.6%
2024Q3
92
47.7
4.69
0.59
0.78
3.32
4.53
18.6%
2024Q2
91
47.3
4.37
0.57
0.73
3.08
4.27
10.7%
2024Q1
91
47.4
4.27
0.44
0.84
2.99
4.27
3.7%
2023Q4
92
47.4
4.44
0.54
0.77
3.13
4.41
1.4%
2023Q3
92
47.5
4.35
0.50
0.78
3.07
4.31
3.0%
2023Q2
91
48.1
4.33
0.49
0.83
3.00
4.22
2.2%
2023Q1
90
47.4
4.27
0.39
0.92
2.96
4.19
2.4%
2022Q4
92
47.8
4.41
0.35
1.10
2.96
4.29
7.0%
2022Q3
92
47.5
4.43
0.32
1.02
3.09
4.31
11.9%
2022Q2
91
49.2
4.31
0.46
0.90
2.95
4.12
2.3%
2022Q1
90
51.1
4.47
0.46
0.87
3.14
4.26
1.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
E
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-07
2024-09-27
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
E
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
L
2024-11-06
2024-09-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-11-06
2024-06-18
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-07-18
2024-06-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-18
2020-01-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-12-23
2020-01-31
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2020-03-04
2020-01-31
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2020-03-04
2020-01-31
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2020-03-04
2020-01-31
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2020-03-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARRAR, CHANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARRAR, CHANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
GOBBO, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOBBO, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANDA FARRAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANDA FARRAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT GOBBO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT GOBBO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$185,142
—
$185,142
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$877,355
—
$675,776
$201,579
—
5
—
2022-12-31
$678,689
—
$547,699
$130,990
—
5
—
2021-12-31
$1,345,231
$565,026
$385,110
$266,253
$26,251
5
—
2020-12-31
$1,314,639
$480,660
$395,901
$257,422
$37,631
8
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41027
acs median gross
0
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
fmr
0
$1,311
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41027
acs median gross
1
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
fmr
1
$1,436
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41027
acs median gross
2
$1,541
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
fmr
2
$1,884
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41027
acs median gross
3
$2,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
fmr
3
$2,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41027
acs median gross
4
$2,692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
fmr
4
$3,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41027
acs median gross
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41027
acs recent mover gross
$2,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
0
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
1
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
2
$1,647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
3
$2,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
4
$2,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs median gross
$1,441
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97031
acs recent mover gross
$2,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97031
payment standard 110
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 90
0
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
safmr
0
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 110
1
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 90
1
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
safmr
1
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 110
2
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 90
2
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
safmr
2
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 110
3
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 90
3
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
safmr
3
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 110
4
$3,542
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
payment standard 90
4
$2,898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97031
safmr
4
$3,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.