Reads as: riskier than 43.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.14
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.91
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.3
3.14
0.76
0.35
2.02
2.91
0.0%
2025Q3
92
36.8
2.77
0.86
0.33
1.59
2.48
0.0%
2025Q2
91
39.0
2.73
0.68
0.32
1.73
2.48
0.0%
2025Q1
90
41.1
2.99
0.64
0.42
1.93
2.65
0.0%
2024Q4
92
42.5
2.84
0.55
0.48
1.81
2.32
0.0%
2024Q3
92
44.2
2.55
0.48
0.52
1.55
2.01
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.1
2.54
0.58
0.39
1.57
2.14
0.0%
2023Q4
92
45.0
2.38
0.38
0.51
1.49
2.05
0.0%
2023Q3
92
45.1
2.49
0.27
0.50
1.72
2.14
0.0%
2023Q2
91
43.4
2.85
0.34
0.49
2.02
2.54
0.0%
2023Q1
90
42.3
3.09
0.34
0.59
2.15
2.70
0.0%
2022Q4
92
41.0
3.26
0.33
0.65
2.28
2.82
0.0%
2022Q3
92
44.7
3.16
0.29
0.66
2.21
2.63
0.0%
2022Q2
91
41.1
3.38
0.27
0.75
2.36
2.89
0.0%
2022Q1
90
41.9
3.22
0.37
0.69
2.16
2.79
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-04-30
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-10-18
2024-10-03
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2024-10-31
2024-10-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-10-31
2024-09-04
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-09-20
2024-09-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-09-25
2024-04-30
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-05-01
2024-04-30
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-05-01
2024-04-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-05-01
2023-10-31
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-15
2023-10-12
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2023-11-16
2023-10-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-11-16
2023-10-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-11-16
2023-10-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-11-16
2023-10-12
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
F
2023-12-01
2023-01-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-01-20
2023-01-06
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2023-01-20
2023-01-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
L
2023-01-31
2023-01-06
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
F
2023-01-31
2023-01-06
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
F
2023-01-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MIDWEST MEDICAL FOUNDATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-04-25
current
pecos_ownership
BAUER, TRACY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
HEY, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLAND, JOEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
KILGORE, HELEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LORENZEN, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEAHEN, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SLOAN, BARBARA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, GARRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TOEPFER, VINCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAMSLEY, MARIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
WRABL, CAROL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA SLOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL WRABL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRY THOMPSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN KILGORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL HOLLAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN LORENZEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIE WAMSLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY SHEAHEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY BAUER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCE TOEPFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17085
acs median gross
0
$525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
fmr
0
$658
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17085
acs median gross
1
$683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
fmr
1
$796
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17085
acs median gross
2
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
fmr
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17085
acs median gross
3
$1,051
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
fmr
3
$1,271
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17085
acs median gross
4
$1,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
fmr
4
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17085
acs median gross
5
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
acs median gross
$825
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17085
acs recent mover gross
$892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61036
acs median gross
1
$735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61036
acs median gross
2
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61036
acs median gross
3
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61036
acs median gross
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 61036
payment standard 110
0
$704
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 90
0
$576
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
safmr
0
$640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 110
2
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 90
2
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
safmr
2
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 110
3
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 90
3
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
safmr
3
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 110
4
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
payment standard 90
4
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61036
safmr
4
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.