299 EAST RIVER ROAD, OSWEGO, NY 13126 · CCN 335746
Composite
75.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
200
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 75.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.84
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.20
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.60
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.94
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
133.0
1.84
0.20
0.61
1.03
1.60
16.3%
2025Q3
92
139.2
2.96
0.31
0.97
1.69
2.42
23.1%
2025Q2
91
135.0
2.99
0.29
0.94
1.76
2.56
22.4%
2025Q1
90
146.6
2.67
0.26
0.76
1.65
2.27
22.7%
2024Q4
92
146.4
3.01
0.26
0.81
1.94
2.62
27.2%
2024Q3
92
140.3
3.11
0.30
0.81
2.01
2.66
34.5%
2024Q2
91
142.9
2.71
0.28
0.73
1.70
2.27
27.9%
2024Q1
91
134.0
2.79
0.26
0.72
1.80
2.35
28.7%
2023Q4
92
140.9
2.65
0.17
0.73
1.74
2.37
24.9%
2023Q3
92
154.9
2.53
0.20
0.66
1.67
2.21
29.4%
2023Q2
91
153.6
2.42
0.19
0.65
1.57
2.13
28.2%
2023Q1
90
147.5
2.68
0.25
0.73
1.70
2.23
22.0%
2022Q4
92
149.1
2.81
0.27
0.73
1.80
2.26
25.7%
2022Q3
92
149.2
2.64
0.31
0.74
1.60
2.15
21.5%
2022Q2
91
146.6
2.94
0.32
0.78
1.84
2.31
20.4%
2022Q1
90
149.2
2.72
0.32
0.84
1.56
2.31
16.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 11E × 8F × 1G × 2J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
D
2025-05-04
2025-03-14
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
E
2025-05-04
2023-12-28
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-02-25
2023-06-09
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-08-07
2023-06-09
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-08-07
2023-04-13
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-06-11
2023-04-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-06-11
2023-04-13
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2023-06-11
2023-04-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-06-11
2021-04-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2021-06-07
2021-04-09
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2021-06-07
2021-04-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2021-06-07
2021-04-09
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2021-06-07
2021-04-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-06-07
2019-01-18
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2019-03-19
2019-01-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-03-19
2019-01-18
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2019-03-19
2019-01-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2019-03-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CASWELL, BRIAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
CULLINAN, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1997-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARFAGLIA, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
FRAWLEY, STEPHEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILL, CATHERINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIRABITO, JEROME
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, ALLISON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-10-06
current
pecos_ownership
POLLOCK, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1992-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOUNGS, SHELLY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE GILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-10-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN CASWELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-06-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEROME MIRABITO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL CULLINAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1997-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL POLLOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1992-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD FARFAGLIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-02-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLY YOUNGS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN FRAWLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,248,267
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,638,926
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$1,649,971
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,685,820
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,685,820
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36075
acs median gross
0
$780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
fmr
0
$995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36075
acs median gross
1
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
fmr
1
$1,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36075
acs median gross
2
$998
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
fmr
2
$1,392
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36075
acs median gross
3
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
fmr
3
$1,691
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36075
acs median gross
4
$1,513
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
fmr
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36075
acs median gross
$967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36075
acs recent mover gross
$1,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs median gross
1
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs median gross
2
$1,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs median gross
3
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs median gross
4
$1,611
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs median gross
$1,064
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 13126
acs recent mover gross
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 13126
payment standard 110
0
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 90
0
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
safmr
0
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 110
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 90
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
safmr
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 110
2
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 90
2
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
safmr
2
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 110
3
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 90
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
safmr
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 110
4
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
payment standard 90
4
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 13126
safmr
4
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.