54 HOSPITAL DRIVE, OSAGE BEACH, MO 65065 · CCN 265429
Composite
14.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
16
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 14.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
8.76
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
4.14
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
9.13
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
8.62
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
5.9
8.76
4.14
1.44
3.17
9.13
0.0%
2025Q3
92
9.0
7.06
3.21
1.77
2.07
7.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
9.3
6.21
2.03
2.12
2.05
6.24
0.0%
2025Q1
90
7.5
6.40
2.43
1.48
2.48
6.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
6.4
7.38
2.45
1.89
3.04
7.62
0.0%
2024Q3
92
7.6
7.51
2.58
2.40
2.53
7.75
0.0%
2024Q2
91
7.1
7.36
2.31
3.02
2.04
7.54
0.0%
2024Q1
91
6.5
7.18
2.32
1.99
2.87
7.34
4.7%
2023Q4
92
7.0
7.11
2.43
1.66
3.01
7.25
12.8%
2023Q3
92
8.1
6.34
1.66
2.10
2.57
6.25
1.2%
2023Q2
91
6.3
7.25
1.96
2.11
3.19
7.11
0.0%
2023Q1
90
6.3
7.21
2.00
2.16
3.05
7.01
0.0%
2022Q4
92
6.5
7.41
2.40
1.68
3.33
7.29
1.1%
2022Q3
92
6.3
7.18
2.78
1.56
2.84
7.35
4.5%
2022Q1
90
6.9
7.07
3.92
1.14
2.02
6.83
17.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
3
C × 1E × 2
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-01-18
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-02-07
2024-01-18
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
C
2024-02-05
2024-01-18
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-02-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
49
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ANDERSON, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
1990-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
BYRNE, KEVIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2004-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAINE, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
1990-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
COMPTON, WAYNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2002-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, WARREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
FAIFERLICK, KAREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
current
pecos_ownership
HASTY, JESSICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
HULETT, JASON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
current
pecos_ownership
HUNTER, MELISSA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUDAS, JAMES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEM
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2006-02-23
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLETON, PAULA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
MCELYEA, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
MCROBERTS, KEVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCROBERTS, KEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-03
current
pecos_ownership
MEAD, ALAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-08-04
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAELREE, DENNIS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ONEIL, PATRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
ONEIL, PATRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PATTON, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
current
pecos_ownership
PRENGER, KRISTEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RECTOR, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-04
current
pecos_ownership
SHIELDS, LARRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
TENBENSEL, COREY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2011-06-03
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEM
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-11-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN MCROBERTS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-06-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA HUNTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA LITTLETON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN MEAD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-08-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES MCELYEA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COREY TENBENSEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2011-06-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS MICHAELREE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY ANDERSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
1990-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES JUDAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON HULETT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA HASTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN CAINE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
1990-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PATTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN FAIFERLICK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN BYRNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2004-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN MCROBERTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN PRENGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY SHIELDS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK RECTOR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK ONEIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK ONEIL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WARREN COOPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-06-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WAYNE COMPTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2002-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29029
acs median gross
0
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
fmr
0
$697
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29029
acs median gross
1
$676
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
fmr
1
$716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29029
acs median gross
2
$838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
fmr
2
$939
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29029
acs median gross
3
$1,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
fmr
3
$1,306
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29029
acs median gross
4
$1,244
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
fmr
4
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29029
acs median gross
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29029
acs recent mover gross
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65065
acs median gross
1
$715
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65065
acs median gross
2
$793
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65065
acs median gross
3
$1,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65065
acs median gross
$790
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65065
acs recent mover gross
$1,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65065
payment standard 110
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 90
0
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
safmr
0
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 110
1
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 90
1
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
safmr
1
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 110
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 90
2
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
safmr
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 110
3
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 90
3
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
safmr
3
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 110
4
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
payment standard 90
4
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65065
safmr
4
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.