Reads as: riskier than 82.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.41
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.29
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.46
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.9
3.41
0.27
0.68
2.46
3.29
23.5%
2025Q3
92
46.6
3.74
0.12
0.96
2.66
3.49
26.4%
2025Q2
91
45.9
3.65
0.12
0.91
2.62
3.39
19.9%
2025Q1
90
44.8
3.73
0.20
0.83
2.70
3.42
6.7%
2024Q4
92
45.3
4.06
0.15
0.96
2.94
3.79
3.6%
2024Q3
92
43.1
3.85
0.22
0.87
2.76
3.65
8.8%
2024Q2
91
47.2
3.38
0.16
0.79
2.43
3.24
7.1%
2024Q1
91
50.9
3.13
0.14
0.77
2.23
2.99
0.4%
2023Q4
92
53.9
3.21
0.14
0.73
2.35
3.15
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.3
3.52
0.14
0.85
2.52
3.36
0.0%
2023Q2
91
50.3
3.38
0.20
0.79
2.38
3.07
6.7%
2023Q1
90
49.3
3.26
0.21
0.68
2.36
3.13
8.9%
2022Q4
92
48.3
3.36
0.18
0.69
2.49
3.23
9.2%
2022Q3
92
43.4
3.84
0.12
0.83
2.89
3.67
6.3%
2022Q2
91
43.7
3.54
0.22
0.75
2.58
3.32
4.2%
2022Q1
90
44.6
3.51
0.20
0.76
2.55
3.34
1.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-11-21
2025-11-19
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-11-20
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-05-16
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-05-15
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2025-05-16
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
G
2025-05-21
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2025-05-15
2025-04-22
Health · complaint
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
F
2025-05-15
2024-04-30
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-05-20
2024-04-30
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-05-20
2024-04-30
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
L
2024-05-20
2023-02-09
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2022-09-21
2022-02-18
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2022-03-13
2022-02-18
Health
F0608
Develop and implement policies and procedures to ensure (1) employees report any suspicion of a crime against any resident, according to timelines; (2) post the notice of employee rights; and (3) prohibit and prevent retaliation for reporting.
D
2022-03-13
2022-02-18
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2022-03-13
2022-02-18
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-03-18
2022-02-18
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2022-03-18
2022-02-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2022-03-18
2022-02-18
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2022-04-01
2022-02-18
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2022-03-13
2022-02-18
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
E
2022-03-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RANDOLPH COUNTY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
CATO, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
CATO, MICHELLE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
COULTER, RUSSELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
COULTER, RUSSELL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1999-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLDER, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIEHNA, MARC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
RANDOLPH COUNTY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, RONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID HOLDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC KIEHNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE CATO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE CATO
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-03-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD WHITE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL COULTER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1999-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL COULTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17157
acs median gross
0
$1,007
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
fmr
0
$632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17157
acs median gross
1
$570
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
fmr
1
$698
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17157
acs median gross
2
$770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
fmr
2
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17157
acs median gross
3
$902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
fmr
3
$1,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17157
acs median gross
4
$1,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
fmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17157
acs median gross
5
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
acs median gross
$780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17157
acs recent mover gross
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62286
acs median gross
2
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62286
acs median gross
3
$806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62286
acs median gross
$759
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 62286
payment standard 110
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 90
0
$567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
safmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 110
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 90
1
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
safmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 110
2
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 90
2
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
safmr
2
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 110
3
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 90
3
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
safmr
3
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 110
4
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
payment standard 90
4
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62286
safmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.