Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

801–850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
801	GREENWICH WOODS REHABILITATION	7.5%	95.3	D	CT	GREENWICH	217	SJJJ LLC
802	KNOPP NURSING & REHAB CENTER INC	7.5%	95.3	F	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	60	—
803	ARVADA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	7.5%	95.3	B	CO	ARVADA	54	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
804	OAKHURST HEALTH & REHABILITATION	7.5%	95.2	B	VA	FORK UNION	60	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
805	CARE ONE AT REDSTONE	7.5%	95.2	F	MA	EAST LONGMEADOW	254	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
806	MOUNT VERNON NURSING AND REHABILITATION	7.5%	95.2	C	IN	MOUNT VERNON	66	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
807	The Suites Pasadena	7.4%	95.2	F	TX	Pasadena	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
808	HAVEN OF CAMP VERDE	7.4%	95.2	D	AZ	CAMP VERDE	58	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
809	Avamere Rehabilitation Of Lebanon	7.4%	95.2	B	OR	LEBANON	84	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
810	ONAGA OPERATOR, LLC	7.4%	95.2	B	KS	ONAGA	45	BARRES LLC
811	Lewis Park Post Acute	7.4%	95.2	F	TN	HOHENWALD	131	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
812	Complete Care at Maple Grove LLC	7.4%	95.2	D	WI	Madison	184	SMS 2021 TRUST
813	RIVER BROOK HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.4%	95.2	C	GA	HOMERVILLE	92	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
814	LeTort Spring Nursing and Rehab LLC	7.4%	95.2	C	PA	CARLISLE	109	STONERIDGE RETIREMENT LIVING COMMUNITIES INC
815	BRENTWOOD PLACE THREE	7.4%	95.2	B	TX	DALLAS	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
816	HICKORY MANOR	7.4%	95.2	D	MO	LICKING	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
817	The Rehabilitation Center of Albuquerque	7.4%	95.2	C	NM	Albuquerque	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
818	LUTHERAN CONVALESCENT HOME	7.4%	95.2	B	MO	WEBSTER GROVES	251	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
819	Twin Oaks Nursing Home	7.4%	95.2	B	LA	LAPLACE	148	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
820	Hilltop Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	7.4%	95.1	C	LA	Pineville	130	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
821	AVIR AT BURNET	7.4%	95.1	B	TX	BURNET	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
822	THE VILLAGE AT HERITAGE OAKS	7.4%	95.1	C	TX	CORSICANA	0	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
823	OAK PARK OASIS	7.4%	95.1	F	IL	OAK PARK	204	POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
824	HALLMARK MANOR	7.4%	95.1	B	WA	FEDERAL WAY	147	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
825	The Oaks at Jamestown	7.4%	95.1	A	MI	Hudsonville	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
826	Life Care Center of Treasure Valley	7.4%	95.1	C	ID	Boise	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
827	MEDICALODGES COLUMBUS	7.4%	95.1	B	KS	COLUMBUS	45	MEDICALODGES INC
828	HILLSIDE REHAB & CARE CENTER	7.4%	95.1	F	IL	YORKVILLE	79	BRIDGEMARK HEALTHCARE LLC
829	NORTHWOOD HILLS CARE CENTER	7.4%	95.1	C	MO	HUMANSVILLE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
830	PRUITTHEALTH - SWAINSBORO	7.4%	95.1	A	GA	SWAINSBORO	103	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
831	Bainbridge Landing of Journey LLC	7.4%	95.1	D	GA	BAINBRIDGE	100	BARRES LLC
832	WYTHE CNTY COMMUNITY HOSP ECU	7.4%	95.1	A	VA	WYTHEVILLE	8	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
833	LEGACY AT HERINGTON	7.3%	95.1	A	KS	HERINGTON	45	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
834	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - PETERSBURG CARE CENTER	7.3%	95.1	B	IN	PETERSBURG	63	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
835	AVAMERE AT PACIFIC RIDGE	7.3%	95.0	B	WA	TACOMA	102	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
836	MEDICALODGES DEWEY	7.3%	95.0	B	OK	DEWEY	58	MEDICALODGES INC
837	VILLA MANOR CARE CENTER	7.3%	95.0	C	CO	LAKEWOOD	110	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
838	AVENTURA AT PEMBROOKE	7.3%	95.0	B	PA	WEST CHESTER	180	—
839	Brittany Manor	7.3%	95.0	C	MI	Midland	138	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
840	MARQUIS PIEDMONT POST ACUTE REHAB	7.3%	95.0	C	OR	PORTLAND	70	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
841	PINNACLE POINT WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	7.3%	95.0	C	MO	RIVERSIDE	180	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
842	Harmony Hall Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	7.3%	95.0	B	NC	Kinston	175	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
843	OSAGE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	7.3%	95.0	C	CA	INGLEWOOD	53	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
844	MONTEREY HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE, LP	7.3%	95.0	C	CA	ROSEMEAD	96	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
845	Salem Center	7.3%	95.0	A	WV	SALEM	112	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
846	OAKWOOD HEALTH SERVICES	7.3%	95.0	B	WI	ALTOONA	80	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
847	RIVERWAYS MANOR	7.3%	95.0	B	MO	VAN BUREN	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
848	HOLIDAY RESORT OF SALINA	7.3%	95.0	D	KS	SALINA	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
849	BLUEBONNET POINT WELLNESS	7.3%	95.0	C	TX	BULLARD	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
850	NORTH CAPE CENTER	7.3%	95.0	B	NJ	NORTH CAPE MAY	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC

Showing 801–850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.