Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

751–800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
751	HAVEN OF SCOTTSDALE	7.8%	95.6	C	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	56	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
752	KNOPP HEALTHCARE AND REHAB CENTER INC	7.8%	95.6	C	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	119	—
753	CIMARRON POINTE CARE CENTER	7.8%	95.5	C	OK	MANNFORD	108	—
754	WILLOWS OF NEW CASTLE	7.8%	95.5	C	IN	NEW CASTLE	95	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
755	JULIA RIBAUDO EXTENDED CARE CENTER	7.8%	95.5	D	PA	LAKE ARIEL	119	BNV DYNASTY LLC
756	NOVATO HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.7%	95.5	B	CA	NOVATO	181	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
757	ELMHURST EXTENDED CARE CENTER	7.7%	95.5	F	IL	ELMHURST	108	—
758	WARREN BARR LINCOLN PARK	7.7%	95.5	F	IL	CHICAGO	109	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
759	CHATEAU ST. JAMES REHAB AND RETIREMENT	7.7%	95.5	B	LA	LUTCHER	116	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
760	HERITAGE SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	7.7%	95.5	C	OK	TECUMSEH	100	BRIDGES ESOP INC
761	PRUITTHEALTH - OLD CAPITOL	7.7%	95.5	C	GA	LOUISVILLE	143	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
762	GROVE OF ELMHURST, THE	7.7%	95.5	F	IL	ELMHURST	180	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
763	LYNCHBURG NURSING CENTER	7.7%	95.5	A	TN	LYNCHBURG	88	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
764	Medilodge of East Lansing	7.7%	95.5	B	MI	East Lansing	99	B&Y TRUST
765	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING JONESBURG	7.7%	95.5	C	MO	JONESBURG	81	CHP SNFCO LLC
766	Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Wyoming	7.7%	95.5	D	MI	Wyoming	92	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
767	BROOKDALE SKYLINE	7.7%	95.5	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	82	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
768	AVIR AT PITTSBURG	7.7%	95.5	C	TX	PITTSBURG	0	TITUS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
769	Patterson Healthcare Center	7.7%	95.5	D	LA	Patterson	121	NEXION HEALTH INC
770	MARYMOUNT MANOR	7.7%	95.5	C	MO	EUREKA	174	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
771	SPRINGS AT LAFAYETTE, THE	7.7%	95.4	C	IN	LAFAYETTE	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
772	Horizon Post Acute and Rehabilitation Center	7.7%	95.4	B	AZ	GLENDALE	196	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
773	Ridgewood Center, Genesis HealthCare	7.7%	95.4	D	NH	BEDFORD	150	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
774	ST CLAIR NURSING CENTER	7.7%	95.4	C	MO	SAINT CLAIR	79	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
775	PARKER HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	7.7%	95.4	C	IN	PARKER CITY	89	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
776	The Manor Healthcare Residence	7.7%	95.4	A	TX	Mexia	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
777	ROSCOE GARDENS SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	7.6%	95.4	F	OH	COSHOCTON	72	WHEATEN LLC
778	Homestead Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	7.6%	95.4	F	NJ	NEWTON	128	AM 145 HOLDINGS LLC
779	PruittHealth- Rock Hill	7.6%	95.4	C	SC	Rock Hill	132	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
780	INDEPENDENCE MANOR CARE CENTER	7.6%	95.4	A	MO	INDEPENDENCE	99	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
781	Desert Terrace Healthcare Center	7.6%	95.4	B	AZ	PHOENIX	108	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
782	SAN LUIS CARE CENTER	7.6%	95.4	B	CO	ALAMOSA	70	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
783	Maple Springs Senior Living	7.6%	95.4	B	UT	North Logan	98	BRONSHIELD LLC
784	Mary Anna Nursing Home	7.6%	95.4	B	LA	Wisner	81	—
785	PIERPONT CENTER AT FAIRMONT CAMPUS	7.6%	95.4	B	WV	FAIRMONT	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
786	NEIGHBORHOODS REHABILITATION AND SKILLED NURSING B	7.6%	95.3	C	MO	COLUMBIA	120	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
787	Miami Nursing Center, LLC	7.6%	95.3	B	OK	Miami	82	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
788	MORROW MANOR NURSING CENTER	7.6%	95.3	A	OH	CHESTERVILLE	46	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
789	Woodward Hills Health and Rehabilitation Center	7.6%	95.3	D	MI	Bloomfield Hills	190	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
790	SMOKY HILL REHABILITATION CENTER	7.6%	95.3	D	KS	SALINA	90	—
791	Shady Rest Care Center	7.5%	95.3	A	OK	Pryor	65	BGM ESTATE LLC
792	BROOKDALE GREENWOOD VILLAGE	7.5%	95.3	B	CO	GREENWOOD VILLAGE	90	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
793	STONEBRIDGE FLORISSANT	7.5%	95.3	B	MO	FLORISSANT	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
794	BELLA TERRA ELMHURST	7.5%	95.3	C	IL	ELMHURST	142	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
795	IOWA PARK HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.5%	95.3	C	TX	IOWA PARK	0	—
796	WARRENSBURG MANOR CARE CENTER	7.5%	95.3	B	MO	WARRENSBURG	88	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
797	JUNIPER VILLAGE AT BROOKLINE-REHABILITATION AND SK	7.5%	95.3	C	PA	STATE COLLEGE	116	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
798	Aberdeen Rehabilitation and Skilled Nursing Center	7.5%	95.3	B	MI	Trenton	120	—
799	VIVIAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.5%	95.3	C	LA	VIVIAN	95	NEXION HEALTH INC
800	MADISON, THE	7.5%	95.3	D	WV	MORGANTOWN	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC

Showing 751–800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.