Reads as: riskier than 66.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.1 vs natl
LONGHURST STOCK
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.9 vs natl
SAMUELIAN STEPHEN
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.5 vs natl
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
WEST CHRISTIAN
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ROBERTSON BRETT
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
SAMUELIAN ROBERT
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
FRAGOSO LINDSAY
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
SAMUELIAN SPENCER
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LONGHURST STOCK
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.84
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.63
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.93
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
41.4
2.84
0.33
1.00
1.52
2.63
0.0%
2025Q3
92
41.8
3.07
0.40
1.00
1.67
2.59
0.0%
2025Q2
91
44.5
3.25
0.35
1.07
1.83
2.88
0.0%
2025Q1
90
51.5
3.00
0.50
0.75
1.74
2.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
52.3
2.90
0.51
0.77
1.62
2.68
0.0%
2024Q3
92
53.2
2.87
0.40
0.81
1.65
2.68
0.0%
2024Q2
91
55.0
2.86
0.29
0.87
1.70
2.56
0.0%
2024Q1
91
53.3
2.92
0.31
0.99
1.61
2.63
17.9%
2023Q4
92
50.9
2.67
0.28
0.91
1.48
2.38
17.1%
2023Q3
92
49.6
3.08
0.43
0.90
1.75
2.86
9.9%
2023Q2
91
51.2
2.94
0.31
0.89
1.74
2.73
9.8%
2023Q1
90
48.9
2.89
0.35
0.87
1.67
2.72
22.0%
2022Q4
92
47.6
3.24
0.25
1.11
1.88
2.87
23.9%
2022Q3
92
46.1
3.03
0.44
0.80
1.79
3.02
11.3%
2022Q2
91
50.8
3.15
0.41
0.82
1.92
3.08
21.2%
2022Q1
90
49.3
3.36
0.37
0.90
2.10
3.05
26.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 13E × 10G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-02-13
2025-11-05
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-12-12
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2024-11-27
2024-10-10
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2024-11-27
2024-06-13
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-07-25
2023-11-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-02-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DIXON, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRAGOSO, LINDSAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH GROUP LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN SCOTTSDALE REAL ESTATE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN SCOTTSDALE REAL ESTATE LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
LONGHURST, STOCK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
MUIR, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
MURPHY, NICOLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTSON, BRETT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, SPENCER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, STEPHEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEASTRAND, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
VIJ, NEERAJ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, CHRISTIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETT ROBERTSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN WEST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON SEASTRAND
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CALEB MORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDSAY FRAGOSO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MUIR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEERAJ VIJ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE MURPHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL GREINER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE ESPINOSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STOCK LONGHURST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$580,439
—
$580,439
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$511,329
—
$511,329
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$393,035
—
$393,035
—
—
0
—
2021-12-31
$378,868
—
$378,868
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$329,579
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
0
$1,768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
1
$1,735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
2
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
3
$2,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
4
$2,642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs recent mover gross
$2,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85251
payment standard 110
0
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
0
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
0
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
1
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
1
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
1
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
2
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
3
$3,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
3
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
3
$2,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
4
$3,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
4
$2,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
4
$3,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.