Reads as: riskier than 70.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.9 vs natl
STERNSHEIN JENNIFER
49 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.5 vs natl
ZIMMERMAN CAROLINE
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.1 vs natl
GARETZ DAVID
66 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.0 vs natl
MINDLE ADAM
56 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.0 vs natl
SASEM INVESTMENTS LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.5 vs natl
KAPLAN ESTHER
55 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.4 vs natl
KAPLAN MOSHA
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC
41 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.9 vs natl
UNGER JEFFREY
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.8 vs natl
GURWITZ SOLOMON
42 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
CONTINUUM REHAB GROUP LLC
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
HATTERAS INVESTMENTS LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.4 vs natl
OPCO TEXAS SKILLED MGMT LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GARETZ DAVID
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
KAPLAN ESTHER
54 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
MINDLE ADAM
52 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
HANSEN HUNTER LLC
28 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
STERNSHEIN JENNIFER
44 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
GURWITZ SOLOMON
41 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
UNGER JEFFREY
45 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CONTINUUM REHAB GROUP LLC
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
ZIMMERMAN CAROLINE
33 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
OPCO TEXAS SKILLED MGMT LLC
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.23
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.99
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
60.0
3.23
0.34
1.13
1.76
2.99
0.0%
2025Q3
92
52.5
3.68
0.48
1.25
1.94
3.44
0.0%
2025Q2
91
53.1
3.67
0.55
1.13
1.99
3.25
0.0%
2025Q1
90
51.8
3.87
0.49
1.12
2.26
3.57
9.2%
2024Q4
92
52.7
3.56
0.67
0.86
2.03
3.39
10.2%
2024Q3
92
53.2
3.51
0.79
0.81
1.90
3.32
0.0%
2024Q2
91
54.6
3.23
0.88
0.77
1.58
3.02
0.0%
2024Q1
91
54.7
3.16
1.04
0.62
1.50
3.05
0.0%
2023Q4
92
52.3
3.15
1.18
0.47
1.50
2.86
0.0%
2023Q3
92
51.5
3.21
1.20
0.49
1.53
2.95
0.0%
2023Q2
91
51.2
3.53
1.25
0.44
1.85
3.48
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.5
4.18
1.56
0.53
2.09
4.03
0.0%
2022Q4
92
49.1
3.99
1.38
0.48
2.13
3.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
46.2
3.96
1.21
0.71
2.04
3.58
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.0
3.98
1.15
0.68
2.15
3.58
0.0%
2022Q1
90
46.0
3.93
1.25
0.69
1.98
3.57
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-08-20
2025-08-19
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2025-08-20
2025-08-19
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-08-20
2025-07-11
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-08-08
2025-07-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-08-08
2025-03-25
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-04-09
2023-11-10
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-12-22
2023-11-10
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-12-22
2023-11-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-12-22
2022-09-09
Health
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2022-09-09
2022-09-09
Health
F0608
Develop and implement policies and procedures to ensure (1) employees report any suspicion of a crime against any resident, according to timelines; (2) post the notice of employee rights; and (3) prohibit and prevent retaliation for reporting.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-09
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
D
2022-10-31
2021-04-02
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2021-04-26
2021-04-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-04-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AZ HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
INDIGO AZ TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
61%
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
AMETHYST AZ TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
3380 N WINDSONG DRIVE AZ LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
AZ REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM REHAB GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST SWEETZER HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
GARETZ, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
GARLAND, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
GURWITZ, SOLOMON
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
GUTHMILLER, TREVOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
HANSEN HUNTER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
HATTERAS INVESTMENTS, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
KAPLAN, ESTHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
KAPLAN, MOSHA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
MINDLE, ADAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
OPCO AZ SKILLED MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
OPCO TEXAS SKILLED MGMT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
ORCHID AZ TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACOCK AZ TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SASEM INVESTMENTS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
STERNSHEIN, JENNIFER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
UNGER, JEFFREY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, CAROLINE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
ESTHER KAPLAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GARETZ
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSHA KAPLAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS GARLAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TREVOR GUTHMILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-11-19
$1,333,912
—
—
—
$1,424
2
—
2023-12-31
$1,393,379
—
—
—
$586
2
—
2022-12-31
$1,158,172
—
—
—
$2,043
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,068,425
—
—
—
$7,176
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,093,708
—
—
—
$18,238
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04025
acs median gross
0
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
fmr
0
$1,129
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04025
acs median gross
1
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
fmr
1
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04025
acs median gross
2
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
fmr
2
$1,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04025
acs median gross
3
$1,604
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
fmr
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04025
acs median gross
4
$1,589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
fmr
4
$2,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04025
acs median gross
5
$1,354
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
acs median gross
$1,351
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04025
acs recent mover gross
$1,626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
0
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
1
$1,120
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
2
$1,316
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
3
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
4
$1,730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
5
$2,723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs median gross
$1,536
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86314
acs recent mover gross
$1,702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 86314
payment standard 110
0
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 90
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
safmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 110
1
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 90
1
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
safmr
1
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 110
2
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 90
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
safmr
2
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 110
3
$2,695
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 90
3
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
safmr
3
$2,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 110
4
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
payment standard 90
4
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86314
safmr
4
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.