Reads as: riskier than 43.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CHRISTMAS KEVIN
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
DANIELS JANA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
DILLON WILLIAM
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
KELLY ELIZABETH
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LISTWAN SAMANTHA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SCHERTZ AMBER
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.41
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.13
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.52
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
36.8
2.41
0.32
0.53
1.56
2.13
0.0%
2025Q3
92
35.0
2.52
0.29
0.57
1.66
2.25
0.0%
2025Q2
91
32.8
2.63
0.30
0.64
1.69
2.28
0.0%
2025Q1
90
33.2
2.55
0.30
0.61
1.64
2.10
0.0%
2024Q4
92
34.7
2.67
0.30
0.60
1.77
2.18
0.0%
2024Q3
92
33.8
2.77
0.30
0.68
1.79
2.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
32.0
2.95
0.31
0.85
1.79
2.59
0.0%
2024Q1
91
35.1
2.98
0.27
0.99
1.73
2.62
0.0%
2023Q4
92
37.6
2.77
0.31
0.83
1.63
2.40
0.0%
2023Q3
92
38.4
2.59
0.34
0.88
1.37
2.16
3.7%
2023Q2
91
37.8
2.74
0.34
0.79
1.61
2.26
3.2%
2023Q1
90
36.8
2.85
0.27
1.12
1.46
2.45
0.0%
2022Q4
92
39.0
2.55
0.27
1.11
1.17
2.44
6.6%
2022Q3
92
38.7
2.43
0.27
1.07
1.09
2.15
1.3%
2022Q2
91
36.3
2.59
0.24
1.25
1.10
2.29
0.0%
2022Q1
90
34.7
2.54
0.24
1.36
0.94
2.26
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
D × 4E × 18
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-05
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-11-29
2024-11-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-11-29
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2023-09-27
2023-08-10
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2023-09-27
2023-08-10
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-09-27
2023-08-10
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2023-09-27
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-09-27
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-09-27
2021-04-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0564
Inform each resident of his or her visitation rights and ensure that all visitors enjoy equal visitation privileges.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2021-07-02
2021-04-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-07-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
53
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MEDICALODGES INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
BEAN, STEPHANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
BEAN, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-07-28
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTMAS, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
COOVER, TERESA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
COX, GAREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1998-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
COX, GAREN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2000-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
DANIELS, JANA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
DILLON, WILLIAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
DOLL, GAYLE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
FISHER, KRISTYN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
GROVER, BRIDGET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HINES, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
HINES, SCOTT
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2009-03-20
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
LAGER, SHANNON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
LANTZ, KATHLEEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
LISTWAN, SAMANTHA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
MARSHALL, CAROL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCBRIDE, TRAVIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, RON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
ROHLING MCCORD, CATHERINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
SCHERTZ, AMBER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
SPILLARS, RODGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPILLARS, RODGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAECHTER HARMON, LORI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
AMBER SCHERTZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIDGET GROVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL MARSHALL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2006-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE ROHLING MCCORD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2000-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAREN COX
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
1998-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAYLE DOLL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2005-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANA DANIELS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN LANTZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2007-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CHRISTMAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTYN FISHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-03-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI WAECHTER HARMON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BUTLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2003-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RON OTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2006-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA LISTWAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT HINES
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2009-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT HINES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2009-03-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON LAGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2016-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA COOVER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRAVIS MCBRIDE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM DILLON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAREN COX
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2000-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RODGER SPILLARS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RODGER SPILLARS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE BEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE BEAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-07-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-10-31
$237,616
—
$230,531
—
—
0
—
2023-10-31
$258,705
—
$251,534
—
—
0
—
2022-10-31
$296,638
—
$291,329
—
—
0
—
2021-10-31
$275,449
—
$270,668
—
—
0
—
2020-10-31
$260,822
—
$256,920
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40147
acs median gross
0
$702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
fmr
0
$712
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40147
acs median gross
1
$713
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
fmr
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40147
acs median gross
2
$837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
fmr
2
$947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40147
acs median gross
3
$1,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
fmr
3
$1,317
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40147
acs median gross
4
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
fmr
4
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40147
acs median gross
5
$2,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
acs median gross
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40147
acs recent mover gross
$1,228
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74029
acs median gross
2
$651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74029
acs median gross
3
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74029
acs median gross
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74029
payment standard 110
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 90
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
safmr
0
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 110
2
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 90
2
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
safmr
2
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 110
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 90
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
safmr
3
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 110
4
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
payment standard 90
4
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74029
safmr
4
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.