Reads as: riskier than 66.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.90
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.84
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.85
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.93
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.8
3.90
0.84
0.77
2.29
3.85
0.0%
2025Q3
92
78.1
3.90
0.82
0.81
2.27
3.74
0.0%
2025Q2
91
77.2
3.77
0.68
0.95
2.13
3.47
0.0%
2025Q1
90
72.7
3.37
0.56
1.02
1.79
3.29
0.0%
2024Q4
92
69.6
3.56
0.47
1.18
1.92
3.57
0.0%
2024Q3
92
69.6
3.55
0.51
1.05
1.99
3.54
0.1%
2024Q2
91
77.9
3.42
0.45
1.03
1.95
3.33
0.4%
2024Q1
91
82.6
3.27
0.48
0.98
1.81
3.14
1.8%
2023Q4
92
77.0
3.43
0.47
1.02
1.94
3.18
3.7%
2023Q3
92
78.3
3.48
0.50
1.04
1.94
3.24
6.8%
2023Q2
91
78.5
3.39
0.62
0.88
1.89
3.23
7.8%
2023Q1
90
81.8
3.23
0.54
0.85
1.84
3.13
12.6%
2022Q4
92
78.3
3.54
0.60
0.90
2.04
3.46
26.6%
2022Q3
92
82.4
3.43
0.64
0.90
1.90
3.35
30.6%
2022Q2
91
85.2
3.53
0.68
0.94
1.92
3.39
19.1%
2022Q1
90
80.6
3.39
0.49
1.09
1.81
3.24
18.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
28
D × 19E × 8F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-26
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-04-24
2026-03-26
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
F
2026-04-24
2025-03-19
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-04-25
2025-03-19
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-04-25
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-05-03
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-05-03
2023-12-14
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-01-25
2023-12-14
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-01-25
2023-12-14
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-01-25
2023-10-11
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2023-11-10
2023-10-11
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-11-10
2022-09-02
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2022-10-18
2022-09-02
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-10-18
2022-09-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-10-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
VILLA MANOR R/E INV. LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
VILLA MANOR R/E INV. LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
DEVELOPERS INVESTMENT COMPANY INC
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
STRONG, JESSICA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-11-29
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
VILLA MANOR R/E INV. LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
VILLA MANOR R/E INV. LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
VILLA MANOR R/E INV. LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA STRONG
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-11-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,158,921
$765,597
$368,591
—
—
5
propco
2023-12-31
$2,118,229
$751,180
$409,427
—
—
5
propco
2022-12-31
$2,172,322
$772,989
$393,450
—
—
5
propco
2021-12-31
$2,430,746
$826,694
$407,782
—
—
6
propco
2020-12-31
$2,556,728
$1,011,432
$369,381
—
$10,073
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08059
acs median gross
0
$1,624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
2
$1,863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
3
$2,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
4
$2,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
5
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs median gross
$1,861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs recent mover gross
$1,996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
0
$1,654
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
1
$1,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
2
$1,757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
3
$2,145
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
4
$2,332
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
5
$3,500
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs median gross
$1,775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80226
acs recent mover gross
$1,992
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80226
payment standard 110
0
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 90
0
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
safmr
0
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 110
2
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 90
2
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
safmr
2
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 110
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 90
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
safmr
3
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 110
4
$3,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
payment standard 90
4
$2,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80226
safmr
4
$2,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.