Composite
24.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 75.9 | 72.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.52 | in index |
| financial risk | 48.4 | 44.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.17 | in index |
| staffing risk | 36.1 | 36.2 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 6.94 | in index |
| chow risk | 23.1 | 23.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.67 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.9 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 21.4 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 44.6 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 72.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 36.2 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.6 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 48.9 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 36.2 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 36.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.20 | -1.73 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.71 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.14 | +0.26 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.81 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.14 | -0.62 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.20 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.53 | 3.19 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.96 | 3.02 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.75 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 56.5 | 3.53 | 0.68 | 0.53 | 2.32 | 2.96 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 58.0 | 3.33 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 2.24 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 53.1 | 2.98 | 0.56 | 0.34 | 2.08 | 2.63 | 40.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 51.7 | 3.50 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 2.47 | 3.14 | 2.7% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 54.3 | 3.20 | 0.56 | 0.35 | 2.29 | 2.87 | 3.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 53.8 | 3.11 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 2.21 | 2.74 | 4.8% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 45.5 | 3.37 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 2.29 | 3.06 | 9.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 46.2 | 3.25 | 0.72 | 0.29 | 2.25 | 2.98 | 9.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 49.6 | 3.22 | 0.70 | 0.22 | 2.31 | 3.05 | 6.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 50.1 | 3.03 | 0.61 | 0.27 | 2.15 | 2.88 | 5.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 51.5 | 2.81 | 0.83 | 0.13 | 1.85 | 2.74 | 5.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 49.5 | 3.10 | 0.87 | 0.14 | 2.09 | 2.96 | 6.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 51.5 | 2.93 | 0.80 | 0.14 | 1.99 | 2.72 | 14.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 52.5 | 3.37 | 0.84 | 0.11 | 2.41 | 3.22 | 3.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 48.7 | 3.75 | 0.95 | 0.17 | 2.63 | 3.72 | 10.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | Fine | $39,176 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-07-16 | Fine | $20,367 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-07-02 |
| 2025-07-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-07-02 |
| 2025-05-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-05-02 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | C | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health · complaint | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | G | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health · complaint | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-16 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-01-10 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0680 | Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional. | E | 2024-01-10 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | E | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0685 | Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services. | D | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | F | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0790 | Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident. | D | 2023-03-25 |
| 2023-03-02 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-03-24 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | E | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-02 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2021-12-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHESLEY, AARON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PAINTER, WILLIAM | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-05-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| REDDY, SNEHAL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SWEETWATER CARE OPCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AARON CHESLEY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AJC HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES GAMETT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JBG PARTNERS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SNEHAL REDDY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM PAINTER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-05-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-16 | — | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC | FOREST STREET LTC, LLLP | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 107 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-07-11 | Pueblo Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | CONSTITUTION OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-05-16 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLCthis facility | — | — | — | 60 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-10-16 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | CASEY'S POND SENIOR LIVING | — | — | — | 66 | NORTHWEST COLORADO VISITING NURSE ASSOCIATION |
| 2024-09-01 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 83 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 81 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 78 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WESTLAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 107 | LATHAM RIVER HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2024-09-01 | THORNTON CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 101 | THORNTON CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | DURANGO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 133 | CHIMNEY ROCK HEALTHCARE INC |
| 2024-09-01 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 63 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 0 | $1,643 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,653 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 1 | $1,754 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 2 | $2,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,410 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 3 | $2,734 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 4 | $3,049 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,591 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | $1,831 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 08031 | acs recent mover gross | $1,948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 0 | $622 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,356 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,800 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,238 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,052 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,770 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80207 | acs median gross | $1,879 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 80207 | acs recent mover gross | $1,888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,859 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,521 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | safmr | 0 | $1,690 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,620 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | safmr | 1 | $1,800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,365 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | safmr | 2 | $2,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,091 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | safmr | 3 | $2,810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,454 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80207 | safmr | 4 | $3,140 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |