Reads as: riskier than 99.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.0 vs natl
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
55% fined
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN HOLLY
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.48
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.50
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.47
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
49.0
2.48
0.29
0.53
1.66
2.50
0.7%
2025Q3
92
51.0
2.49
0.34
0.46
1.69
2.39
2.0%
2025Q2
91
51.2
2.42
0.38
0.51
1.53
2.31
0.1%
2025Q1
90
49.2
2.46
0.53
0.38
1.55
2.43
0.1%
2024Q4
92
46.5
2.63
0.38
0.55
1.70
2.62
2.8%
2024Q3
92
49.4
2.45
0.35
0.53
1.56
2.30
15.5%
2024Q2
91
55.8
2.48
0.41
0.46
1.61
2.36
26.2%
2024Q1
91
57.7
2.84
0.32
0.65
1.87
2.68
38.0%
2023Q4
92
50.7
2.92
0.31
0.67
1.94
2.74
30.5%
2023Q3
92
54.4
2.26
0.37
0.39
1.51
1.94
32.7%
2023Q2
91
50.5
3.46
0.49
0.77
2.21
2.97
32.7%
2023Q1
90
52.9
3.50
0.27
0.74
2.50
3.29
31.0%
2022Q4
92
53.8
3.25
0.35
0.63
2.27
3.01
27.9%
2022Q3
92
48.7
3.30
0.31
0.76
2.23
2.81
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.9
2.79
0.23
0.68
1.88
2.55
0.0%
2022Q1
90
47.3
2.92
0.24
0.77
1.92
2.68
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.
D
2025-11-05
2025-10-15
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-11-05
2025-10-15
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
J
2025-11-05
2025-01-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-01-24
2025-01-07
Health · complaint
F0659
Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.
E
2025-01-20
2025-01-07
Health · complaint
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
G
2025-01-22
2024-10-08
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-11-12
2024-10-08
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-10-31
2024-10-08
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-10-31
2024-10-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-31
2023-05-18
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-06-14
2023-05-18
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-08-14
2023-05-18
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2023-05-19
2023-05-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-01
2023-05-18
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2023-05-19
2019-09-26
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2019-11-06
2019-09-26
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2019-10-29
2019-09-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2019-10-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, EDWARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-26
current
pecos_ownership
MAHRT, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, KATIE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, WALTER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAI, PRADEEP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
SLATTERY & HOLMAN P.C.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
SLATTERY & HOLMAN P.C.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, HOLLY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, JARED
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLY BELLO FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER MYERS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATIE MYERS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED SWAIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY SWAIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PICKD LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MAHRT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRITTANY LESSENDEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRITTANY LESSENDEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRADEEP RAI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-12-31
$239,753
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$55,918
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$523,901
—
$523,901
—
—
2
—
2020-09-30
$419,738
—
$419,738
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08087
fmr
0
$878
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08087
acs median gross
1
$670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
fmr
1
$884
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08087
acs median gross
2
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
fmr
2
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08087
acs median gross
3
$1,314
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
fmr
3
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08087
acs median gross
4
$1,402
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
fmr
4
$1,824
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08087
acs median gross
5
$1,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
acs median gross
$1,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08087
acs recent mover gross
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80723
acs median gross
1
$673
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80723
acs median gross
2
$1,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80723
acs median gross
3
$1,597
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80723
acs median gross
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80723
payment standard 110
0
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 90
0
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
safmr
0
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 110
1
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 90
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
safmr
1
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 110
2
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 90
2
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
safmr
2
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 110
3
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 90
3
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
safmr
3
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 110
4
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
payment standard 90
4
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80723
safmr
4
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.