Composite
1.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 235735
A
The Oaks at Jamestown
snfMI
3145 Sun Chase Avenue, Hudsonville, MI 49426 · CCN 235735 · chain TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
58
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 1.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2ML signals14Components6CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing3Penalties0Deficiencies0Licensure0Ownership45Related party1Transactions0Comps12Market rent34
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 27.0 | 27.1 | 0.25 | 0.6250 | 16.88 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.5 | 15.0 | 0.15 | 0.3750 | 0.19 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 14 chains | BARNEY LEIGH | 122 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 14 chains | DAVIS DAVID | 122 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC | 95 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC | 68 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP | 67 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST | 68 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC | 68 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC | 119 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC | 67 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 13 chains | GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC | 69 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 12 chains | GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC | 68 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 11 chains | TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC | 42 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 6 chains | CORBIN KATHY | 75 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 4 chains | PROSKY DANNY | 63 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
6| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 15.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 7.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| staffing risk | 27.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| staffing risk | 27.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 27.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
7.4%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
95.1
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.29 | +0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.63 | +0.19 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
47.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.29 | -1.29 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.63 | +0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.71 | -0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
3| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.71 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.92 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.58 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.76 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 36.6 | 3.71 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 1.95 | 3.58 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 32.9 | 3.94 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 2.13 | 3.74 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 23.6 | 4.91 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 2.70 | 4.80 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 29% | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BARNEY, LEIGH | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLLIER'S FUNDING LLC | 5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CONNER, GREGORY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CORBIN, KATHY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAVIS, DAVID | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FIGHTMASTER, LISA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIELHORN, NICHOLAS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCNAMARA, DONALD | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MEHAFFEY, TODD | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PIETROWSKI, CRISTINA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-10-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PIETROWSKI, CRISTINA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PROSKY, DANNY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THACKER, JESSICA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY REAL ESTATE HUDSONVILLE LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VAN DE STEENOVEN, ELISE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VAN DE STEENOVEN, ELISE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WILLHITE, GABRIEL | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TRILOGY OPCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2025-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CRISTINA PIETROWSKI | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CRISTINA PIETROWSKI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-10-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DANNY PROSKY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID DAVIS | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DONALD MCNAMARA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ELISE VAN DE STEENOVEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ELISE VAN DE STEENOVEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GABRIEL WILLHITE | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GREGORY CONNER | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JESSICA THACKER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHY CORBIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEIGH BARNEY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LISA FIGHTMASTER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS KIELHORN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TODD MEHAFFEY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-08-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — MI snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 0 | $953 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | fmr | 0 | $1,047 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,116 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | fmr | 1 | $1,333 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,187 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | fmr | 2 | $1,519 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,449 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | fmr | 3 | $1,930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,575 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | fmr | 4 | $2,256 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,125 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26139 | acs median gross | $1,211 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26139 | acs recent mover gross | $1,423 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49426 | acs median gross | 1 | $992 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49426 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,315 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49426 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,684 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49426 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,699 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49426 | acs median gross | $1,344 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49426 | acs recent mover gross | $1,445 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | safmr | 0 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,251 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | safmr | 1 | $1,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | safmr | 2 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | safmr | 3 | $2,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,596 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,124 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49426 | safmr | 4 | $2,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.