Reads as: riskier than 65.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.78
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.54
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.87
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.8
2.78
0.55
0.59
1.65
2.54
0.0%
2025Q3
92
49.2
2.76
0.38
0.59
1.79
2.52
0.0%
2025Q2
91
49.4
2.69
0.23
0.74
1.72
2.56
0.0%
2025Q1
90
52.4
2.57
0.20
0.66
1.71
2.35
0.0%
2024Q4
92
54.3
2.69
0.18
0.69
1.81
2.45
0.0%
2024Q3
92
58.3
2.51
0.17
0.64
1.70
2.23
0.0%
2024Q2
91
55.7
2.65
0.22
0.59
1.83
2.44
0.0%
2024Q1
91
55.6
2.73
0.26
0.62
1.85
2.57
0.0%
2023Q4
92
58.2
2.61
0.20
0.61
1.80
2.49
0.0%
2023Q3
92
52.4
2.58
0.27
0.58
1.72
2.46
0.0%
2023Q2
91
57.8
2.19
0.32
0.41
1.46
2.04
0.1%
2023Q1
90
56.1
2.30
0.37
0.38
1.54
2.10
0.0%
2022Q4
92
51.7
2.44
0.39
0.60
1.45
2.19
0.0%
2022Q3
92
51.4
2.76
0.38
0.57
1.81
2.47
0.0%
2022Q2
91
50.0
2.42
0.26
0.62
1.54
2.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
48.3
2.51
0.39
0.55
1.57
2.13
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
C × 1D × 7E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-13
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2026-02-27
2024-08-06
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-09-12
2024-08-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-09-12
2024-08-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-09-12
2024-08-06
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-09-12
2023-05-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-15
2023-05-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-06-15
2023-05-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-15
2023-05-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-06-15
2023-05-15
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2023-06-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BABCOCK, PAUL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
BAILEY, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
CAINE, VIRGINIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
CHAFFIN, ALISHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
DICE, MARK
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRUMMER, CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANIFY, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2003-12-22
current
pecos_ownership
HORN, BRENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAZARD, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
LEE-KALSCH, KATHRYN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
MANTRAVADI, GEETA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
PAYNE, MONICA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-08-09
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALISHA CHAFFIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA HORN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN BAILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARL DRUMMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEETA MANTRAVADI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHRYN LEE-KALSCH
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA HARRIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2003-12-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK DICE
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONICA PAYNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL BABCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LAZARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS HANIFY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIRGINIA CAINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-01-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$398,927
—
—
—
—
13
—
2023-12-31
$390,287
—
—
—
—
13
—
2022-12-31
$369,985
—
—
—
—
13
—
2021-12-31
$346,385
—
—
—
—
14
—
2020-12-31
$337,338
—
—
—
—
14
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18129
fmr
0
$853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18129
acs median gross
1
$638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18129
fmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18129
acs median gross
2
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18129
fmr
2
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18129
acs median gross
3
$1,066
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18129
fmr
3
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18129
fmr
4
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18129
acs median gross
$782
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18129
acs recent mover gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47620
acs median gross
1
$642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47620
acs median gross
2
$852
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47620
acs median gross
3
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47620
acs median gross
$805
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47620
acs recent mover gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47620
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 110
3
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 90
3
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
safmr
3
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 110
4
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
payment standard 90
4
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47620
safmr
4
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.