Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,651–1,700

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1651	MOUNTAIN VIEW CARE CENTER	5.2%	90.2	A	AZ	TUCSON	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1652	Shell Rock Senior Living	5.2%	90.2	B	IA	Shell Rock	41	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1653	Signature Healthcare of Hartford Rehab & Wellness	5.2%	90.2	B	KY	Hartford	110	WHEATEN LLC
1654	LIFE CARE CENTER OF HILO	5.2%	90.2	B	HI	HILO	252	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1655	PRUITTHEALTH - TOOMSBORO	5.2%	90.2	B	GA	TOOMSBORO	62	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1656	NHC HEALTHCARE ROSSVILLE	5.2%	90.2	D	GA	ROSSVILLE	112	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1657	South Ogden Post-Acute (Cascades at South Ogden)	5.2%	90.2	D	UT	Ogden	122	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
1658	CARE ONE AT NEWTON	5.2%	90.2	F	MA	NEWTON	202	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
1659	NEURORESTORATIVE COLORADO	5.2%	90.2	B	CO	LITTLETON	36	CAREMERIDIAN LLC
1660	BRIA OF FOREST EDGE	5.2%	90.2	F	IL	CHICAGO	328	WHEAT CHAFF LP
1661	AUTUMN CARE OF CHESAPEAKE	5.2%	90.2	A	VA	CHESAPEAKE	117	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1662	PUTNAM CENTER	5.2%	90.2	A	WV	HURRICANE	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1663	CENTER AT PARK WEST LLC, THE	5.2%	90.1	B	CO	PUEBLO	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
1664	ALDEN PARK STRATHMOOR	5.2%	90.1	F	IL	ROCKFORD	189	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1665	ALTERCARE OF BUCYRUS CENTER FO	5.2%	90.1	B	OH	BUCYRUS	80	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1666	Rocky Mount Rehabilitation Center	5.2%	90.1	A	NC	Rocky Mount	117	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
1667	WESTWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME, INC	5.2%	90.1	A	LA	DERIDDER	132	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
1668	SHARON HEALTH CARE WILLOWS	5.2%	90.1	C	IL	PEORIA	218	—
1669	INN AT FREEDOM VILLAGE, THE	5.2%	90.1	B	FL	BRADENTON	120	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1670	Rehabilitation Center of Des Moines	5.2%	90.1	B	IA	Des Moines	74	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1671	MCCORMICK'S CREEK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	5.2%	90.1	B	IN	SPENCER	87	MAJOR HOSPITAL
1672	Opus Post Acute Rehabilitation	5.2%	90.1	B	SC	West Columbia	98	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1673	FOOTHILLS REHABILITATION CENTER	5.2%	90.1	B	AZ	TUCSON	149	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
1674	Life Care Center Of Merrimack Valley	5.2%	90.0	C	MA	BILLERICA	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1675	MILLER'S HEALTH & REHAB BY MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	5.2%	90.0	B	IN	LA PORTE	81	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1676	Homestead Post Acute	5.2%	90.0	A	KY	Lexington	136	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1677	Muskogee Nursing Center	5.2%	90.0	C	OK	Muskogee	58	—
1678	BRENTWOOD EXTENDED CARE & REHAB	5.2%	90.0	F	OK	MUSKOGEE	90	—
1679	LAURELS OF MT VERNON THE	5.2%	90.0	C	OH	MOUNT VERNON	99	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1680	SEDGEWOOD COMMONS	5.2%	90.0	A	ME	FALMOUTH	91	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1681	Oakland Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center LL	5.2%	90.0	C	MI	Pontiac	29	—
1682	ENGLEWOOD POST ACUTE AND REHABILITATION	5.2%	90.0	A	CO	ENGLEWOOD	82	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1683	Laurelwood Healthcare Center	5.2%	90.0	D	MD	ELKTON	110	RRW LLC
1684	HICKORY HOUSE NURSING HOME	5.2%	90.0	B	PA	HONEY BROOK	110	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1685	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT DANBURY	5.2%	90.0	C	CT	DANBURY	180	ESNH LLC
1686	AHC MCKENZIE	5.2%	90.0	B	TN	MC KENZIE	99	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
1687	The Legacy Rehab & Care Center	5.2%	89.9	A	AZ	BULLHEAD CITY	120	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
1688	LIFE CARE CENTER OF BURLINGTON	5.2%	89.9	C	KS	BURLINGTON	77	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1689	LIVE OAK REHAB CENTER	5.2%	89.9	C	CA	SAN GABRIEL	99	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
1690	HERITAGE MANOR OF MANDEVILLE	5.2%	89.9	C	LA	Mandeville	145	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1691	LAURELS OF WEST COLUMBUS, THE	5.2%	89.9	C	OH	COLUMBUS	97	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1692	COTTESMORE OF LIFE CARE	5.2%	89.9	C	WA	GIG HARBOR	108	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1693	The Laurels of Coldwater	5.2%	89.9	C	MI	Coldwater	169	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1694	ARTESIAN HOME	5.2%	89.9	B	OK	SULPHUR	72	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
1695	RIVER CITY CENTER	5.2%	89.9	B	AL	DECATUR	183	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1696	PLAYA DEL REY CENTER	5.2%	89.9	D	CA	PLAYA DEL REY	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1697	Yuma Nursing Center	5.2%	89.9	A	AZ	YUMA	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
1698	Maple Valley Nursing Home	5.2%	89.9	C	MI	Maple Valley	25	—
1699	SEARS MANOR NURSING HOME	5.2%	89.9	B	GA	BRUNSWICK	100	CROSSROADS MEDICAL MANAGEMENT INC
1700	HERITAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.2%	89.9	C	KS	CHANUTE	60	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC

Showing 1,651–1,700 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.