Reads as: riskier than 91.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.3 vs natl
BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.8 vs natl
FULLMER CHAD
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
MCSPADDEN DARIN
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
MCSPADDEN DARIN
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
FULLMER CHAD
14 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.06
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.75
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.98
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.09
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.3
3.06
0.75
0.29
2.02
2.98
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.4
3.16
0.77
0.26
2.14
3.03
0.0%
2025Q2
91
92.9
2.91
0.88
0.14
1.89
2.89
0.0%
2025Q1
90
86.1
2.73
0.96
0.12
1.65
2.82
0.8%
2024Q4
92
77.7
2.81
1.03
0.09
1.69
2.72
2.8%
2024Q3
92
73.6
3.23
1.02
0.16
2.05
3.08
10.9%
2024Q2
91
68.6
3.24
1.04
0.13
2.07
3.07
20.4%
2024Q1
91
64.6
3.53
1.09
0.18
2.27
3.25
17.1%
2023Q4
92
63.6
3.42
1.09
0.16
2.16
3.00
16.2%
2023Q3
92
67.0
3.69
1.17
0.12
2.41
3.48
23.5%
2023Q2
91
85.8
3.79
0.96
0.25
2.58
3.45
37.5%
2023Q1
90
104.7
2.66
0.73
0.27
1.66
2.48
32.4%
2022Q4
92
97.2
2.86
0.80
0.29
1.77
2.62
23.3%
2022Q3
92
94.4
2.75
0.61
0.33
1.81
2.42
20.1%
2022Q2
91
86.1
2.55
0.55
0.32
1.69
2.26
7.8%
2022Q1
90
100.4
2.47
0.63
0.33
1.52
2.16
18.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-21
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-21
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-21
Health
F0775
Keep complete, dated laboratory records in the resident's record.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-09-23
2025-08-21
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-09-23
2025-03-20
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0790
Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
E
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-04-18
2025-03-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-04-18
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
G
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-22
2024-09-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-22
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-12-06
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2024-05-07
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-05-07
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-05-07
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-07
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2024-05-07
2023-09-18
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2023-11-09
2023-09-18
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2023-11-09
2023-09-18
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2023-11-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
12
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADES HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-28
current
pecos_ownership
FULLMER, CHAD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANGFORD, SCOTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
MCSPADDEN, DARIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
MCSPADDEN, DARIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
S O POST ACUTE HOLIDNGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARIN MCSPADDEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2018-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD FULLMER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARIN MCSPADDEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT LANGFORD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,575,669
$1,052,432
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$602,811
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49057
acs median gross
0
$929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
fmr
0
$1,208
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49057
acs median gross
1
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
fmr
1
$1,281
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49057
acs median gross
2
$1,334
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
fmr
2
$1,614
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49057
acs median gross
3
$1,665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
fmr
3
$2,163
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49057
acs median gross
4
$2,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
fmr
4
$2,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49057
acs median gross
5
$2,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
acs median gross
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49057
acs recent mover gross
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
0
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
1
$1,222
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
2
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
3
$1,315
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
4
$2,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
5
$2,289
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs median gross
$1,405
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84405
acs recent mover gross
$1,646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84405
payment standard 110
0
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 90
0
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
safmr
0
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 110
1
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 90
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
safmr
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 110
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 90
2
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
safmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 110
3
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 90
3
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
safmr
3
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 110
4
$2,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
payment standard 90
4
$2,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84405
safmr
4
$2,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.