Composite
2.6 / 100 percentile
Screener / 465187
A
South Davis Specialty Care
snfUT
481 South 400 East, Bountiful, UT 84010 · CCN 465187 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
95
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 2.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model4ML signals5Components10CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing16Penalties0Deficiencies9Licensure0Ownership18Related party1Transactions1Comps12Market rent36
Composite explanation
4| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 79.8 | 25.2 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 11.97 | in index |
| billing conduct | 15.3 | 20.0 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 4.59 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 7.9 | 5.0 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 2.37 | in index |
| staffing risk | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 0.13 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 18 chains | ENSIGN SERVICES INC | 286 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 17 chains | BURNAM SOON | 335 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 17 chains | KEETCH CHAD | 283 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 12 chains | THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | 123 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 11 chains | STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP | 83 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
10| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 20.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 5.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
12.1
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.24 | -1.63 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 7.40 | -0.86 | |
| Chain size (log) | 5.46 | +0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.46 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
0.0
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.46 | -1.98 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 7.40 | -1.76 | |
| Occupancy | 0.54 | +0.89 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.24 | -0.26 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | UT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 7.40 | 3.19 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 3.27 | 0.78 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 6.79 | 3.04 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 7.64 | 3.25 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 51.1 | 7.40 | 3.27 | 0.68 | 3.45 | 6.79 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 50.2 | 7.28 | 3.18 | 0.59 | 3.52 | 6.62 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 48.5 | 7.20 | 3.23 | 0.68 | 3.29 | 6.37 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 50.9 | 7.63 | 3.30 | 0.78 | 3.55 | 7.02 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 46.6 | 7.59 | 3.48 | 0.52 | 3.60 | 7.07 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 47.1 | 8.33 | 3.58 | 0.84 | 3.90 | 7.62 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 45.5 | 6.19 | 2.72 | 0.75 | 2.73 | 5.72 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 42.5 | 6.51 | 2.47 | 0.80 | 3.23 | 6.64 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 40.9 | 6.72 | 2.59 | 0.79 | 3.34 | 6.83 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 41.0 | 6.66 | 2.91 | 0.48 | 3.27 | 6.68 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 40.0 | 6.87 | 2.69 | 0.63 | 3.56 | 7.08 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 41.1 | 6.37 | 2.58 | 0.82 | 2.97 | 6.64 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 39.1 | 6.75 | 2.69 | 0.77 | 3.29 | 6.75 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 39.2 | 7.28 | 2.67 | 0.62 | 3.99 | 7.29 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 43.7 | 7.62 | 2.98 | 0.59 | 4.05 | 7.65 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 48.8 | 7.38 | 3.20 | 0.48 | 3.70 | 7.33 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9D × 5E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0775 | Keep complete, dated laboratory records in the resident's record. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-15 |
| 2021-12-06 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2022-01-11 |
| 2021-12-06 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2022-01-11 |
| 2021-12-06 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2022-01-11 |
| 2021-12-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-01-11 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MILESTONE HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BURNAM, SOON | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ENSIGN SERVICES INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FARNSWORTH, STEPHEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLETCHER, JEFF | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLETCHER, JEFF | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KEETCH, CHAD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2011-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARTINEZ, MARK | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARTINEZ, MARK | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MILLCREEK HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PORT, BARRY | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP, LP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEFF FLETCHER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2024-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FITCH | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2024-03-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SOON BURNAM | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2024-03-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN FARNSWORTH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2024-03-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TRACY JENKINS | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2024-03-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
1| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-01 | — | HOLBROOK HEALTHCARE LLC | PROVIDENTIAL BBA OPERATING LP | chow |
Comparable trades — UT snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Stonehenge of South Jordan | — | — | — | 32 | TRILITHON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-11-01 | Stonehenge of Orem | — | — | — | 34 | SARSEN HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-06-05 | Midtown Manor | — | — | — | 82 | MILFORD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL |
| 2024-05-01 | South Davis Specialty Carethis facility | — | — | — | 95 | HOLBROOK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-02-01 | Monument Healthcare Bountiful | — | — | — | 100 | MILFORD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL |
| 2024-02-01 | Monument Healthcare Millcreek | — | — | — | 120 | MILFORD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL |
| 2022-10-02 | Sunshine Terrace Skilled Nursing | — | — | — | 172 | MILFORD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL |
| 2020-07-01 | Monument Healthcare Stonecreek | — | — | — | 122 | GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL |
| 2020-07-01 | Monument Healthcare Canyon Rim | — | — | — | 90 | GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL |
| 2020-07-01 | Monument Healthcare American Fork | — | — | — | 106 | GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL |
| 2020-07-01 | Mission at Richfield Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 98 | GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL |
| 2020-07-01 | Monument Healthcare Cottonwood Creek | — | — | — | 77 | GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,172 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | fmr | 0 | $1,208 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,316 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | fmr | 1 | $1,281 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,474 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | fmr | 2 | $1,614 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,833 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | fmr | 3 | $2,163 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,123 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | fmr | 4 | $2,612 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,296 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 49011 | acs median gross | $1,621 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 49011 | acs recent mover gross | $1,848 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,118 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,282 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,512 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,779 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,377 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,375 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 84010 | acs median gross | $1,572 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 84010 | acs recent mover gross | $1,558 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | safmr | 0 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,463 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | safmr | 1 | $1,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,848 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,512 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | safmr | 2 | $1,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | safmr | 3 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,992 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,448 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 84010 | safmr | 4 | $2,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.