Reads as: riskier than 98.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
12.7
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MURRAY BRIAN
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.85
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.65
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.72
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.90
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
33.8
2.85
0.65
0.48
1.72
2.72
0.0%
2025Q3
92
28.6
3.34
0.57
0.53
2.25
3.31
0.0%
2025Q2
91
33.9
3.27
0.53
0.53
2.21
3.14
0.0%
2025Q1
90
29.1
2.09
0.29
0.37
1.43
2.10
0.0%
2024Q4
92
33.7
3.25
0.47
0.58
2.21
3.24
5.2%
2024Q3
92
31.9
3.40
0.46
0.69
2.26
3.34
7.3%
2024Q2
91
32.2
2.99
0.44
0.69
1.87
2.99
4.2%
2024Q1
91
33.7
2.92
0.38
0.77
1.77
2.98
3.4%
2023Q4
92
34.1
3.02
0.34
0.84
1.84
3.07
4.7%
2023Q3
92
40.0
2.89
0.32
0.84
1.72
2.80
2.2%
2023Q2
91
39.0
3.40
0.36
0.87
2.16
3.18
0.1%
2023Q1
90
40.2
3.02
0.47
0.67
1.88
2.99
0.0%
2022Q4
92
37.6
2.93
0.58
0.57
1.78
3.01
7.3%
2022Q3
92
37.9
2.80
0.48
0.68
1.64
2.73
2.2%
2022Q2
91
39.5
2.96
0.33
0.85
1.78
2.87
1.0%
2022Q1
90
43.2
3.00
0.42
0.80
1.79
2.77
2.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-03-05
2024-02-07
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-03-05
2024-02-07
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-03-05
2022-06-15
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-07-06
2022-06-15
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-07-06
2020-01-09
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2020-02-14
2020-01-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2020-02-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MONUMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
47%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
163 E 1000 PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
18%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
163 E 1000 PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
18%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BARTHOLOMEW, CHASE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
KEELE, EDDIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
MISSION HEALTH SERVICES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
OVERLY, DALLAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
OVERLY, DALLAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, KATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMBELMAN, MICHELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
EDDIE KEELE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2025-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
163 E 1000 PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
18%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
BRIAN MURRAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHASE BARTHOLOMEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DALLAS OVERLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DALLAS OVERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY SHAW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE ZIMBELMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHFIELD REALTY LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHFIELD REALTY LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHFIELD REALTY LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,733,443
—
—
—
$841,429
31
propco
2024-06-30
$3,225,675
—
—
—
$1,480,417
18
propco
2023-06-30
$2,294,937
—
—
—
$1,240,427
17
propco
2022-06-30
$2,339,754
—
—
—
$1,625,642
3
propco
2021-06-30
$1,999,282
—
—
—
$1,368,392
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49041
acs median gross
0
$589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
fmr
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49041
acs median gross
1
$714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
fmr
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49041
acs median gross
2
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
fmr
2
$1,085
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49041
acs median gross
3
$1,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
fmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49041
acs median gross
4
$1,010
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
fmr
4
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49041
acs median gross
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49041
acs recent mover gross
$1,601
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84701
acs median gross
1
$706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84701
acs median gross
2
$955
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84701
acs median gross
3
$1,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84701
acs median gross
$917
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84701
acs recent mover gross
$1,556
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84701
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 110
3
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 90
3
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
safmr
3
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 110
4
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
payment standard 90
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84701
safmr
4
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.