2250 NORTH CRAYCROFT ROAD, TUCSON, AZ 85712 · CCN 035064 · chain ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
Composite
54.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
149
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 54.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.2 vs natl
ROTHNER WILLIAM
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
ROTHNER DANIEL
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROTHNER WILLIAM
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.35
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.65
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.12
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.44
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
113.5
4.35
0.65
0.88
2.82
4.12
0.0%
2025Q3
92
119.9
4.41
0.71
0.84
2.87
4.14
0.1%
2025Q2
91
118.1
4.40
0.79
0.71
2.90
4.16
0.0%
2025Q1
90
118.0
4.31
0.68
0.81
2.82
4.10
0.0%
2024Q4
92
116.5
4.43
0.69
0.85
2.90
4.17
0.0%
2024Q3
92
120.7
4.33
0.68
0.82
2.83
4.12
0.0%
2024Q2
91
126.3
4.13
0.66
0.77
2.70
3.88
1.7%
2024Q1
91
126.0
3.98
0.58
0.75
2.65
3.83
2.1%
2023Q4
92
122.0
4.07
0.53
0.81
2.73
3.92
0.8%
2023Q3
92
134.2
3.85
0.51
0.80
2.55
3.73
3.1%
2023Q2
91
130.5
3.84
0.54
0.69
2.60
3.66
3.3%
2023Q1
90
121.8
3.97
0.53
0.72
2.72
3.74
4.3%
2022Q4
92
119.8
4.00
0.60
0.69
2.70
3.78
5.5%
2022Q3
92
126.8
2.56
0.31
0.53
1.72
2.56
2.9%
2022Q2
91
131.0
3.71
0.50
0.68
2.53
3.56
1.3%
2022Q1
90
117.6
4.12
0.55
0.76
2.81
3.94
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 13E × 7G × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-28
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-05-04
2026-03-28
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-05-04
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-08-30
2025-07-21
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-09-12
2025-06-25
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-07-25
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-10
2025-03-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-04-21
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-01-07
2024-11-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-11-26
2023-02-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-05-09
2023-02-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-01-25
2023-02-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-05-09
2023-02-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ROTHNER, WILLIAM
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2011-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHNER, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHNER, MELISSA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHNER, RACHEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
FOOTHILLS REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FOOTHILLS REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OKEKE, PATRICK
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, JOE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOE ZIMMERMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
48%
2011-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM ROTHNER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2011-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL ROTHNER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA ROTHNER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL ROTHNER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2011-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FOOTHILLS REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FOOTHILLS REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FOOTHILLS REAL ESTATE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PATRICK OKEKE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,110,687
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$974,217
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$848,638
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$857,501
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$732,525
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04019
acs median gross
0
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
0
$967
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
1
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
1
$1,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
2
$1,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
2
$1,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
3
$1,647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
3
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
4
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
4
$2,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
5
$2,356
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs median gross
$1,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs recent mover gross
$1,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
0
$746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
1
$903
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
2
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
3
$1,656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
4
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs median gross
$1,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85712
acs recent mover gross
$1,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85712
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 110
2
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 90
2
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
safmr
2
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 110
3
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 90
3
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
safmr
3
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 110
4
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
payment standard 90
4
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85712
safmr
4
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.