Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,701–1,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1701	LACOMBE NURSING CENTRE	5.2%	89.9	A	LA	LACOMBE	98	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
1702	MYRTLES NURSING CENTER, LLC	5.2%	89.9	A	MS	COLUMBIA	98	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1703	PINERS NURSING HOME	5.1%	89.9	B	CA	NAPA	49	—
1704	GRAN GRANS PLACE	5.1%	89.9	A	OK	YUKON	69	—
1705	GALLAWAY HEALTH AND REHAB	5.1%	89.9	C	TN	GALLAWAY	104	BARRES LLC
1706	OSAGE BEACH REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.1%	89.9	D	MO	OSAGE BEACH	94	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1707	GRIFFITH PARK HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.1%	89.9	C	CA	GLENDALE	94	RENEW HEALTH GROUP LLC
1708	PARK VIEW REHAB CENTER	5.1%	89.9	D	IL	CHICAGO	128	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
1709	MARSHWOOD CENTER	5.1%	89.9	B	ME	LEWISTON	108	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1710	WATERS OF INDIANAPOLIS, THE	5.1%	89.8	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	81	MAJOR HOSPITAL
1711	Paradigm at Katy	5.1%	89.8	F	TX	Katy	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1712	WATERS OF DUNKIRK SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	5.1%	89.8	B	IN	DUNKIRK	46	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1713	NHC HEALTHCARE, ATHENS	5.1%	89.8	C	TN	ATHENS	86	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1714	PICKAWAY MANOR CARE CENTER	5.1%	89.8	C	OH	CIRCLEVILLE	99	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
1715	THE PHOENIX POST-ACUTE	5.1%	89.8	A	TX	TEXAS CITY	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1716	GARNET HILL REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE	5.1%	89.8	D	TX	WYLIE	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1717	DOCTORS COMMUNITY REHABILITATION AND PATIENT CARE	5.1%	89.8	B	MD	LANHAM	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1718	Nexus at Palos	5.1%	89.8	D	IL	PALOS HILLS	207	WHEAT CHAFF LP
1719	MCLOUD NURSING CENTER	5.1%	89.8	C	OK	MCLOUD	80	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
1720	CUMBERLAND VILLAGE CARE	5.1%	89.8	A	TN	LAFOLLETTE	182	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1721	CROWLEY RIDGE CARE CENTER	5.1%	89.8	B	MO	DEXTER	90	—
1722	Roseview Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	5.1%	89.8	B	LA	Shreveport	124	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1723	OAKS - ATHENS SKILLED NURSING, THE	5.1%	89.8	B	GA	ATHENS	148	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1724	ALLEGANY HEALTH NURSING AND REHAB	5.1%	89.8	D	MD	CUMBERLAND	153	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
1725	Twin City Trails of Journey LLC	5.1%	89.8	B	GA	TWIN CITY	110	BARRES LLC
1726	Evercare at Stearns	5.1%	89.8	D	IL	GRANITE CITY	109	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1727	TAYLOR SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	5.1%	89.8	D	OH	GAHANNA	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1728	SLATE BELT HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.1%	89.8	B	PA	BANGOR	119	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1729	South Park East	5.1%	89.8	D	OK	Oklahoma City	47	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
1730	WESTMORELAND CARE & REHAB CTR	5.1%	89.8	B	TN	WESTMORELAND	100	WHEATEN LLC
1731	CENTINELA SKILLED NURSING & WELLNESS CENTRE WEST	5.1%	89.7	B	CA	INGLEWOOD	59	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
1732	The Blossoms at the Village Rehab & Nursing Center	5.1%	89.7	C	AR	HOT SPRINGS	120	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
1733	ALDEN TOWN MANOR REHAB & HCC	5.1%	89.7	F	IL	CICERO	249	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1734	PAVILION AT VILLA PUEBLO, THE	5.1%	89.7	B	CO	PUEBLO	90	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
1735	WELLBROOKE OF WESTFIELD	5.1%	89.7	D	IN	WESTFIELD	70	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
1736	Sheboygan Progressive Health Services	5.1%	89.7	B	WI	Sheboygan	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
1737	STONEYBROOK RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	5.1%	89.7	B	KS	MANHATTAN	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
1738	LIFE CARE CENTER OF STONEHAM	5.1%	89.7	C	MA	STONEHAM	94	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1739	Rockwell Community Nursing Home	5.1%	89.7	A	IA	Rockwell	40	—
1740	CLINTON HOUSE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.1%	89.7	C	IN	FRANKFORT	88	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1741	ACADIA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	5.1%	89.7	C	NY	RIVERHEAD	181	—
1742	Franciscan Health Care Center	5.1%	89.7	C	KY	Louisville	87	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1743	NHC HEALTHCARE, HENDERSONVILLE	5.1%	89.7	B	TN	HENDERSONVILLE	122	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1744	Brunswick Health & Rehab Center	5.1%	89.6	C	NC	Ash	100	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1745	PRUITTHEALTH - LILBURN	5.1%	89.6	D	GA	LILBURN	152	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1746	Accura Healthcare of Carlisle	5.1%	89.6	C	IA	Carlisle	80	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1747	BROADVIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.1%	89.6	C	CO	GREELEY	100	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1748	Medilodge of Lansing	5.1%	89.6	B	MI	Lansing	85	B&Y TRUST
1749	SILVER MEMORIES HEALTH CARE	5.1%	89.6	A	IN	VERSAILLES	29	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1750	BLOOMFIELD ORCHARD VILLA	5.1%	89.6	F	MI	WEST BLOOMFIELD	50	—

Showing 1,701–1,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.