Composite
55.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 79.3 | 66.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.30 | in index |
| staffing risk | 50.6 | 50.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.73 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 34.5 | 24.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.96 | in index |
| billing conduct | 31.8 | 32.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.34 | in index |
| chow risk | 59.8 | 58.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.90 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 32.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 91.6 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 66.3 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 24.2 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 50.7 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 68.4 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 50.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 50.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | +0.53 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | -1.34 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.51 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.27 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.15 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.32 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 74.0 | 3.27 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 2.20 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 72.9 | 3.39 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 2.23 | 3.24 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 72.5 | 3.35 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 2.19 | 3.08 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 68.3 | 3.29 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 2.15 | 3.03 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 61.4 | 3.40 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 2.28 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 62.6 | 3.35 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 2.31 | 3.14 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 62.8 | 3.02 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 2.00 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 59.6 | 3.27 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 2.11 | 3.09 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 56.1 | 3.54 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 2.36 | 3.51 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 55.9 | 3.28 | 0.38 | 0.53 | 2.37 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 58.6 | 3.23 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 2.36 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 56.6 | 3.33 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 2.35 | 3.26 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 54.2 | 3.07 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 2.08 | 3.03 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 53.7 | 3.04 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 2.02 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 51.7 | 3.11 | 0.74 | 0.43 | 1.94 | 2.91 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 51.3 | 2.91 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 1.81 | 2.77 | 1.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-11-12 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-08-25 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-09-08 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-11 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0907 | Provide enough space and equipment to meet each resident's needs | E | 2024-10-23 |
| 2024-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| 2023-07-20 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | D | 2023-08-15 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK OPCO GROUP, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLASHNER, CRAIG | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIRK, KRISTINE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NOBLE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NORCROSS, ROBERT | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, STACEY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KRISTINE KIRK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT NORCROSS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STACEY ROGERS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-07-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 0 | $806 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | fmr | 0 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 1 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | fmr | 1 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,135 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | fmr | 2 | $1,268 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,385 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | fmr | 3 | $1,627 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,481 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | fmr | 4 | $1,679 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,073 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26045 | acs median gross | $1,092 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26045 | acs recent mover gross | $1,289 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48917 | acs median gross | 1 | $961 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48917 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,157 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48917 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,412 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48917 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,614 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48917 | acs median gross | $1,116 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48917 | acs recent mover gross | $1,192 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | safmr | 0 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | safmr | 1 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | safmr | 2 | $1,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,503 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | safmr | 3 | $1,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,892 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,548 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48917 | safmr | 4 | $1,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |