Reads as: riskier than 97.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
13
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.4 vs natl
DAVIS ESTHER
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.3 vs natl
CARL JOAN
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.1 vs natl
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.9 vs natl
MOLITOR ROBERT
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.7 vs natl
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.2 vs natl
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.7 vs natl
THE FLOYD A SCHLOSSBERG LIVING TRUST
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
DAVIS ESTHER
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.25
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.03
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
147.2
3.25
0.46
0.66
2.14
3.03
8.0%
2025Q3
92
152.1
2.94
0.41
0.59
1.95
2.78
7.1%
2025Q2
91
154.0
3.09
0.45
0.62
2.02
2.87
7.1%
2025Q1
90
157.5
3.06
0.46
0.58
2.02
2.92
7.0%
2024Q4
92
156.8
3.05
0.54
0.53
1.98
2.85
4.4%
2024Q2
91
157.9
2.71
0.52
0.46
1.73
2.54
6.5%
2024Q1
91
151.3
2.74
0.49
0.48
1.77
2.58
4.5%
2023Q4
92
144.6
2.87
0.51
0.52
1.85
2.73
0.0%
2023Q3
92
141.3
2.53
0.49
0.49
1.55
2.37
0.0%
2023Q2
91
138.5
2.40
0.47
0.51
1.42
2.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
137.1
2.42
0.48
0.52
1.42
2.32
0.0%
2022Q4
92
137.2
2.39
0.50
0.48
1.41
2.27
0.0%
2022Q3
92
131.6
2.48
0.57
0.49
1.41
2.36
0.0%
2022Q2
91
130.7
2.37
0.66
0.39
1.32
2.28
0.0%
2022Q1
90
126.6
2.45
0.59
0.48
1.38
2.36
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide doctor's orders for the resident's immediate care at the time the resident was admitted.
D
2026-03-05
2026-01-21
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2026-01-29
2026-01-20
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
—
2025-11-22
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-11-24
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-08-11
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-08-11
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-08-11
2025-05-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-06-03
2025-05-14
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-06-03
2025-05-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-06-03
2025-05-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-06-03
2025-05-14
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2025-06-03
2025-05-14
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2025-06-03
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
L
2025-02-14
2024-06-06
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-06-14
2024-04-26
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-05-07
2024-04-04
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-04-12
2024-04-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
E
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-07-12
2023-06-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALDEN REALTY SERVICES, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2000-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN-PARK STRATHMOOR LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN-PARK STRATHMOOR LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE FLOYD A SCHLOSSBERG LIVING TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN OF ROCKFORD INVESTMENTS LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
91%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN OF ROCKFORD INVESTMENTS LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
91%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
CARL, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, ESTHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
KULJANIN, NIKOLINA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2014-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
MIDCAP FUNDING IV TRUST
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOLITOR, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLOSSBERG, FLOYD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, RANDI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN PARK STRATHMOOR LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN PARK STRATHMOOR LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN-PARK STRATHMOOR LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NIKOLINA KULJANIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2014-05-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALDEN OF ROCKFORD INVESTMENTS LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
91%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN OF ROCKFORD INVESTMENTS LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
91%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN OF ROCKFORD INVESTMENTS LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
91%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ESTHER DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FLOYD SCHLOSSBERG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MOLITOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,106,993
$632,959
—
$451,709
$122,867
10
propco
2023-12-31
$3,089,277
$635,400
—
$629,143
$112,916
10
propco
2022-12-31
$3,150,483
$711,683
—
$707,469
$101,235
10
propco
2021-12-31
$2,931,605
$1,008,188
—
$463,382
$93,854
9
propco
2020-12-31
$2,598,436
$733,647
—
$347,499
$106,931
8
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17201
acs median gross
0
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
fmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17201
acs median gross
1
$712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
fmr
1
$895
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17201
acs median gross
2
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
fmr
2
$1,175
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17201
acs median gross
3
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
fmr
3
$1,555
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17201
acs median gross
4
$1,252
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
fmr
4
$1,594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17201
acs median gross
5
$1,208
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
acs median gross
$1,021
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17201
acs recent mover gross
$1,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
0
$857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
1
$700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
2
$1,098
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
3
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
4
$1,687
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs median gross
$1,100
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61107
acs recent mover gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 61107
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 110
1
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 90
1
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
safmr
1
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 110
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 90
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
safmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 110
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 90
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
safmr
3
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61107
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.