Screener / 345260

Rocky Mount Rehabilitation Center

snfNC

160 S Winstead Avenue, Rocky Mount, NC 27804 · CCN 345260 · chain SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC

Composite

23.9 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

117

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 23.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties2 Deficiencies27 Licensure0 Ownership18 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent35

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
regulatory risk	77.5	73.9	0.30	0.2308	17.88	in index
billing conduct	29.1	31.2	0.30	0.2308	6.72	in index
chow risk	51.6	33.7	0.15	0.1154	5.95	in index
staffing risk	28.4	28.5	0.25	0.1923	5.46	in index
financial risk	8.7	17.9	0.30	0.2308	2.01	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	31.2	B	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	55.0	C	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	12.4	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	17.9	A	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.0	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	5.2	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	73.9	D	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	28.5	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	75.4	D	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	55.4	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	36.7	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	23.9	A	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	73.7	D	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	73.7	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	28.5	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	28.5	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

5.2%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

90.1

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
Occupancy	0.86	-0.46
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	3.78	+0.40
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	15.00	+0.19

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.0%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

0.0

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Deficiencies, last 12 months	15.00	-1.35
Chain size (log)	3.78	-1.00
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
Occupancy	0.86	-0.46
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.69	-0.20
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	NC median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.69	3.08	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.46	0.30	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.33	2.93	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.83	3.14	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	100.3	3.69	0.46	0.98	2.26	3.33	8.4%
2025Q3	92	106.0	3.53	0.47	0.90	2.16	3.13	11.0%
2025Q2	91	101.1	3.61	0.37	0.97	2.27	3.29	8.4%
2025Q1	90	101.7	3.54	0.31	1.06	2.17	3.22	1.3%
2024Q4	92	107.4	3.50	0.47	0.89	2.15	3.09	0.0%
2024Q3	92	109.4	3.62	0.48	0.88	2.26	3.10	0.0%
2024Q2	91	107.4	3.79	0.43	0.96	2.40	3.21	0.0%
2024Q1	91	110.5	3.37	0.39	0.92	2.05	2.89	0.0%
2023Q4	92	109.8	3.44	0.29	0.98	2.17	3.00	0.0%
2023Q3	92	105.5	3.35	0.26	1.07	2.02	2.87	0.0%
2023Q2	91	108.5	3.26	0.26	1.03	1.98	2.91	0.0%
2023Q1	90	111.1	3.19	0.24	0.95	1.99	2.83	0.0%
2022Q4	92	111.3	3.13	0.26	0.97	1.91	2.77	0.0%
2022Q3	92	100.3	3.26	0.23	1.00	2.03	2.94	0.0%
2022Q2	91	103.8	3.38	0.21	1.00	2.16	3.04	0.0%
2022Q1	90	98.1	3.58	0.26	1.06	2.27	3.19	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

fines by year

Date	Type	Fine	Source
2025-01-09	Fine	$17,345	CMS provider data
2024-11-19	Fine	$10,527	CMS provider data

Total fines on record: $27,872

Deficiencies

B × 1C × 3D × 18E × 3G × 1J × 1

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2026-03-05	Health · complaint	F0607	Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.	D	2026-03-31
2026-03-05	Health · complaint	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2026-03-30
2025-11-21	Health · complaint	F0602	Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0628	Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.	B	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0658	Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0690	Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0693	Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health · complaint	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0726	Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0732	Post nurse staffing information every day.	C	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0759	Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.	D	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0761	Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.	E	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0838	Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.	C	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health · complaint	F0839	Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.	E	2025-12-08
2025-11-21	Health	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	E	2025-12-08
2025-01-09	Health · complaint	F0580	Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.	D	2025-01-29
2025-01-09	Health · complaint	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	J	2025-01-29
2025-01-09	Health · complaint	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2025-01-29
2024-11-19	Health · complaint	F0580	Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.	D	2024-12-04
2024-11-19	Health · complaint	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	G	2024-12-04
2024-11-19	Health · complaint	F0757	Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.	D	2024-12-04
2024-08-01	Health · complaint	F0558	Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.	D	2024-08-23
2024-08-01	Health	F0641	Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.	D	2024-08-23
2024-08-01	Health	F0644	Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.	D	2024-08-23
2024-08-01	Health	F0657	Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.	D	2024-08-23
2024-08-01	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2024-08-23
2024-08-01	Health	F0868	Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly	C	2024-08-23

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
CRONQUIST 2015 FAMILY TR	INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2015-12-31	current	pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2017-11-12	current	pecos_ownership
DEITER, SARA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2025-10-23	current	pecos_ownership
GHANNAM, WASEEM	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2026-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
JOHN J NOTERMANN BUSINESS TR	INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2017-11-12	current	pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHELLE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
MELTON, DONALD	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2014-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, BRENDA	INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-15	current	pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2014-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-15	current	pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN CAROLINA HOLDINGS LLC	DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2014-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
DONALD MELTON	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2014-05-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHELLE KELLY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PATRICK O BRIEN	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2015-04-14	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2017-11-12	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SARA DEITER	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2025-10-23	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$491,369	—	—	—	—	1	—
2023-12-31	$465,073	—	—	—	—	1	—
2022-12-31	$390,500	—	—	—	—	1	—
2021-12-31	$349,012	—	—	—	—	1	—
2020-12-31	$372,704	—	—	—	—	1	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — NC snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-07-15	Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat	—	—	—	50	WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC
2025-07-01	Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	—	—	—	100	WARSAW OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	90	511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Wilora Lake Healthcare	—	—	—	70	6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Clay County Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	90	86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	100	25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care	—	—	—	76	333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Westwood Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	68	625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	100	2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Forrest Oakes Healthcare	—	—	—	60	620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	63	931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	Valley View Care and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	76	551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 37127	acs median gross	0	$829	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	fmr	0	$913	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37127	acs median gross	1	$878	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	fmr	1	$918	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37127	acs median gross	2	$915	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	fmr	2	$1,143	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37127	acs median gross	3	$1,105	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	fmr	3	$1,550	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37127	acs median gross	4	$1,046	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	fmr	4	$1,812	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 37127	acs median gross	5	$2,201	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	acs median gross		$953	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 37127	acs recent mover gross		$1,061	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross	0	$843	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross	1	$957	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross	2	$1,020	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross	3	$1,260	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross	4	$1,624	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs median gross		$1,037	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27804	acs recent mover gross		$1,272	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27804	payment standard 110	0	$1,067	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 90	0	$873	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	safmr	0	$970	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 110	1	$1,067	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 90	1	$873	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	safmr	1	$970	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 110	2	$1,331	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 90	2	$1,089	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	safmr	2	$1,210	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 110	3	$1,804	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 90	3	$1,476	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	safmr	3	$1,640	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 110	4	$2,112	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	payment standard 90	4	$1,728	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27804	safmr	4	$1,920	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.