Reads as: riskier than 44.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
TURBETT TIMOTHY
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
EMANUEL YOSEF
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
COALITION GROUP LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
63% fined
TURBETT TIMOTHY
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
EMANUEL YOSEF
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.01
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.50
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.87
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.06
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
40.5
3.01
0.50
0.85
1.67
2.87
0.0%
2025Q3
92
40.5
3.04
0.56
0.74
1.75
3.00
0.0%
2025Q2
91
39.2
3.12
0.54
0.82
1.77
2.96
0.0%
2025Q1
90
41.1
2.83
0.42
0.73
1.68
2.60
0.0%
2024Q4
92
43.2
2.69
0.47
0.70
1.52
2.55
0.0%
2024Q3
92
39.6
2.87
0.42
0.73
1.72
2.79
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.4
2.77
0.31
0.83
1.63
2.75
0.0%
2024Q1
91
41.0
2.98
0.36
0.81
1.82
2.85
0.0%
2023Q4
92
40.1
3.11
0.42
0.63
2.06
3.11
0.0%
2023Q3
92
43.5
2.97
0.38
0.68
1.91
2.94
0.0%
2023Q2
91
40.7
3.10
0.44
0.72
1.94
3.06
0.0%
2023Q1
90
41.7
2.91
0.32
0.78
1.81
2.91
0.0%
2022Q4
92
43.9
2.56
0.28
0.68
1.61
2.56
0.0%
2022Q3
92
38.9
3.01
0.43
0.86
1.71
2.76
1.5%
2022Q2
91
37.6
3.06
0.42
0.78
1.86
2.93
2.9%
2022Q1
90
39.9
2.85
0.53
0.63
1.70
2.51
0.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-12-19
2025-11-21
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
C
2025-12-19
2025-11-21
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-12-19
2025-11-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-12-19
2024-08-27
Health · complaint
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-27
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2024-10-01
2024-08-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2023-10-13
2024-08-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-10-13
2024-08-27
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-27
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-01
2023-05-02
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-05-25
2023-05-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2023-05-25
2023-05-02
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-05-25
2023-05-02
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2023-05-25
2023-05-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-25
2023-05-02
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2023-05-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRIDGE HOLDCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER, CASEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
COALITION GROUP LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
EMANUEL, YOSEF
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
TURBETT, TIMOTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
YOSEF EMANUEL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASEY CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY TURBETT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$638,589
—
—
—
—
5
—
2023-12-31
$718,170
—
—
$301,871
—
12
—
2022-12-31
$646,150
—
—
$289,307
—
12
—
2021-12-31
$267,877
$267,877
—
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$275,671
$275,671
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37071
acs median gross
0
$1,055
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
0
$1,469
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
1
$955
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
1
$1,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
2
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
2
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
3
$1,231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
3
$2,076
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
4
$2,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
4
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
5
$1,773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
acs median gross
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
acs recent mover gross
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
0
$1,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
1
$1,221
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
2
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
3
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
4
$1,688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
5
$1,833
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs median gross
$1,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28056
acs recent mover gross
$1,447
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28056
payment standard 110
0
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 90
0
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
safmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 110
1
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 90
1
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
safmr
1
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 110
2
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 90
2
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
safmr
2
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 110
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 90
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
safmr
3
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 110
4
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
payment standard 90
4
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28056
safmr
4
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.