Reads as: riskier than 59.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ALTER TZVI
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.94
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.20
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.73
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.02
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.4
2.94
0.20
0.79
1.94
2.73
10.5%
2025Q3
92
82.3
3.09
0.20
0.89
2.00
2.85
8.9%
2025Q2
91
77.9
3.33
0.19
0.93
2.21
3.11
2.4%
2025Q1
90
78.5
3.44
0.21
0.88
2.35
3.21
2.7%
2024Q4
92
82.7
3.05
0.14
0.80
2.11
2.79
0.0%
2024Q3
92
81.2
3.20
0.08
0.88
2.24
2.95
0.1%
2024Q2
91
81.7
3.31
0.12
0.85
2.35
3.10
0.0%
2024Q1
91
80.2
3.49
0.08
0.90
2.52
3.30
0.0%
2023Q4
92
84.2
3.18
0.04
0.85
2.29
2.81
0.0%
2023Q3
92
80.2
3.15
0.10
0.77
2.28
2.87
2.7%
2023Q2
91
84.5
3.06
0.14
0.71
2.21
2.86
5.7%
2023Q1
90
75.4
3.16
0.23
0.65
2.28
3.03
5.1%
2022Q4
92
74.0
3.57
0.28
0.74
2.55
3.33
0.0%
2022Q3
92
73.9
3.44
0.19
0.88
2.36
3.14
0.0%
2022Q2
91
68.9
3.57
0.21
1.01
2.35
3.22
1.9%
2022Q1
90
66.6
3.69
0.23
1.00
2.46
3.29
14.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-21
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-04-04
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-01-17
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-01-17
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-01-17
2024-12-09
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2025-01-09
2024-12-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-11-18
2024-04-22
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-05-17
2024-04-22
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-05-17
2023-03-23
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-04-20
2023-03-23
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-04-20
2023-03-23
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-04-20
2023-03-23
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
D
2023-04-20
2023-03-23
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2023-04-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WARSAW HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALTER, TZVI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRAUN, JOSEPH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AFREDE, MOMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
AFREDE, MOMIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAQUIAS GONZALEZ, EILEEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-04
current
pecos_ownership
CAQUIAS GONZALEZ, EILEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
TZVI ALTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH BRAUN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EILEEN CAQUIAS GONZALEZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EILEEN CAQUIAS GONZALEZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOMIN AFREDE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOMIN AFREDE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$413,638
—
$413,638
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$429,194
—
$429,194
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$390,028
—
$390,028
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$327,430
—
$327,430
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$270,711
—
$270,711
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37061
acs median gross
0
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
fmr
0
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37061
acs median gross
1
$449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
fmr
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37061
acs median gross
2
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
fmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37061
acs median gross
3
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
fmr
3
$1,175
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37061
acs median gross
4
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
fmr
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37061
acs median gross
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37061
acs recent mover gross
$934
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28398
acs median gross
1
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28398
acs median gross
2
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28398
acs median gross
3
$1,003
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28398
acs median gross
$924
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28398
acs recent mover gross
$918
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28398
payment standard 110
0
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 90
0
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
safmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 110
2
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 90
2
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
safmr
2
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 110
3
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 90
3
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
safmr
3
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 110
4
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
payment standard 90
4
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28398
safmr
4
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.