Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

751–800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
751	WINSTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.5%	95.1	A	MS	LOUISVILLE	120	—
752	Ridgecrest Village	3.5%	95.1	B	IA	Davenport	137	—
753	ROSARY CARE CENTER	3.5%	95.1	A	OH	SYLVANIA	76	—
754	QUEEN OF PEACE RESIDENCE	3.5%	95.1	A	NY	QUEENS VILLAGE	53	—
755	Vincentian Home	3.5%	95.1	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	106	—
756	ESSENTIA HEALTH VIRGINIA CARE CENT	3.5%	95.0	A	MN	VIRGINIA	40	ESSENTIA HEALTH
757	WESTMINSTER PLACE	3.5%	95.0	A	IL	EVANSTON	105	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
758	RIDGEVIEW TERRACE LONG TERM CARE	3.5%	95.0	B	WI	REEDSBURG	25	—
759	VALLEY MANOR CARE CENTER	3.5%	95.0	B	CO	MONTROSE	101	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
760	EMANATE HEALTH INTER-COMMUNITY HOSPITAL- D/P SNF	3.5%	95.0	B	CA	COVINA	25	—
761	St Clare Home	3.5%	95.0	A	RI	Newport	50	—
762	ROGUE VALLEY MANOR	3.4%	95.0	A	OR	MEDFORD	68	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
763	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE HEALTH & REHAB	3.4%	95.0	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	78	—
764	OUR LADY OF THE VALLEY	3.4%	95.0	A	VA	ROANOKE	70	—
765	GLENFIELDS LIVING WITH CARE	3.4%	95.0	A	MN	GLENCOE	108	—
766	Parkview Home	3.4%	95.0	B	MN	BELVIEW	30	—
767	Pioneer Memorial Nursing Home	3.4%	95.0	B	SD	VIBORG	46	—
768	ASPIRUS CARE & REHAB-MEDFORD	3.4%	95.0	A	WI	MEDFORD	50	ASPIRUS INC
769	Bay County Medical Care Facility	3.4%	95.0	B	MI	Essexville	161	—
770	Radcliff Veterans Center	3.4%	95.0	C	KY	Radcliff	120	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
771	JEFFERSON'S FERRY	3.4%	95.0	A	NY	SOUTH SETAUKET	60	—
772	GRANDVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	95.0	B	TX	GRANDVIEW	0	—
773	COLORADO VETERANS COMMUNITY LIVING CTR AT HOMELAKE	3.4%	95.0	A	CO	MONTE VISTA	60	STATE OF COLORADO
774	Shinnery Oaks Community	3.4%	95.0	A	TX	Denver City	0	—
775	GREEK AMERICAN REHAB CARE CTR	3.4%	95.0	B	IL	WHEELING	188	—
776	Crook County Medical Services District Long Term C	3.4%	95.0	A	WY	Sundance	32	—
777	Bourbon Heights Nursing Home	3.4%	94.9	C	KY	Paris	99	—
778	Harrogate	3.4%	94.9	B	NJ	LAKEWOOD	68	—
779	Penick Village	3.4%	94.9	A	NC	Southern Pines	32	—
780	SCHAFFER EXTENDED CARE CENTER	3.4%	94.9	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	150	—
781	ESPECIALLY KIDZ HEALTH & REHAB	3.4%	94.9	B	IN	SHELBYVILLE	130	—
782	BETHANY HOME ASSOCIATION	3.4%	94.9	A	KS	LINDSBORG	85	—
783	CHANDLER HALL HEALTH SERVICES	3.4%	94.9	A	PA	NEWTOWN	53	—
784	BAPTIST VILLAGE OF OWASSO	3.4%	94.9	D	OK	OWASSO	120	BAPTIST VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OF OKLAHOMA INC
785	Mid-Nebraska Lutheran Home	3.4%	94.9	C	NE	Newman Grove	45	—
786	Powell Valley Care Center	3.4%	94.9	A	WY	Powell	100	—
787	Jenkins Care Community	3.4%	94.9	A	OH	WELLSTON	57	—
788	ORCHARD MANOR	3.4%	94.9	A	WI	LANCASTER	74	COUNTY OF GRANT
789	HANNAH B G SHAW HOME	3.4%	94.9	A	MA	MIDDLEBORO	107	—
790	COX MEDICAL CENTERS MEYER ORTHOPEDIC AND SURGICAL	3.4%	94.9	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	28	COXHEALTH
791	KNOPP HEALTHCARE AND REHAB CENTER INC	3.3%	94.8	C	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	119	—
792	Grand Village	3.3%	94.8	B	MN	GRAND RAPIDS	114	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
793	SPRING HARBOR AT GREEN ISLAND	3.3%	94.8	A	GA	COLUMBUS	40	—
794	RECUPERATIVE SERVICES UNIT-HEBREW REHAB CENTER	3.3%	94.8	B	MA	BOSTON	50	HEBREW SENIORLIFE INC
795	WEDGEWOOD MANOR	3.3%	94.8	A	ND	CAVALIER	33	—
796	VALLEY VIEW HAVEN, INC	3.3%	94.8	B	PA	BELLEVILLE	155	—
797	Luther Haven	3.3%	94.8	A	MN	MONTEVIDEO	55	—
798	CLEBURNE COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.3%	94.8	A	AL	HEFLIN	82	—
799	Heritage Care Center	3.3%	94.8	C	NE	Fairbury	100	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
800	New Horizons Care Center	3.3%	94.8	A	WY	Lovell	85	NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 751–800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.