Composite
6.7 / 100 percentile
Screener / 525290
A
ORCHARD MANOR
snfWI
8800 HWY 61, LANCASTER, WI 53813 · CCN 525290 · chain COUNTY OF GRANT
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
74
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 6.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model5Components16CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing16Penalties2Deficiencies9Licensure0Ownership5Related party5Transactions0Comps12Market rent35
Composite explanation
5| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 50.0 | 39.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.54 | in index |
| financial risk | 31.2 | 34.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.20 | in index |
| chow risk | 39.0 | 37.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.50 | in index |
| staffing risk | 13.2 | 13.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.54 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
16| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 49.8 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 34.6 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 3.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 39.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 13.3 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 66.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 22.4 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.9 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.0 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.5%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
53.4
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.18 | -0.23 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.12 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
3.4%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
94.9
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.18 | -0.41 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.18 | 3.60 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.86 | 3.49 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.31 | 3.65 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 48.5 | 4.18 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 3.18 | 3.86 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 47.8 | 4.30 | 0.81 | 0.20 | 3.30 | 3.99 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 48.3 | 4.13 | 0.80 | 0.21 | 3.12 | 3.71 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 46.5 | 4.07 | 0.82 | 0.21 | 3.03 | 3.68 | 2.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 46.2 | 3.99 | 0.74 | 0.17 | 3.09 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 46.7 | 3.98 | 0.69 | 0.16 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 48.9 | 3.78 | 0.73 | 0.09 | 2.96 | 3.23 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 45.5 | 4.01 | 0.89 | 0.06 | 3.07 | 3.63 | 1.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 44.4 | 3.63 | 0.65 | 0.05 | 2.92 | 3.37 | 15.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 45.4 | 3.62 | 0.79 | 0.04 | 2.78 | 3.14 | 17.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 46.5 | 3.92 | 0.74 | 0.13 | 3.04 | 3.38 | 27.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 46.0 | 3.89 | 0.82 | 0.16 | 2.91 | 3.54 | 30.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 45.5 | 3.82 | 0.74 | 0.20 | 2.88 | 3.49 | 38.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 46.6 | 3.47 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 2.62 | 3.05 | 28.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 48.1 | 3.74 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 2.78 | 3.40 | 22.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 45.2 | 4.09 | 0.74 | 0.44 | 2.92 | 3.64 | 6.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
2| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-15 | Fine | $22,425 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-08-15 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
Total fines on record: $22,425
Deficiencies
9D × 5E × 1F × 1G × 2
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-15 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-11 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-09-11 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | E | 2024-09-11 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-09-11 |
| 2023-05-17 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | G | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-17 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-06-15 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
5| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUNTY OF GRANT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| ERDENBERGER, ALESHA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-09-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STADER, ERIC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2005-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALESHA ERDENBERGER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-09-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERIC STADER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2005-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — WI snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-28 | Complete Care at Hales Corners | — | — | — | 62 | HALES CORNERS CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-05-28 | Complete Care at Care Age | — | — | — | 110 | CARE AGE OF BROOKFIELD CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-04-24 | Edenbrook Sheboygan | — | — | — | 121 | SHEBOYGAN SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | Complete Care at Jefferson Meadows LLC | — | — | — | 102 | ST CLARE CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | Complete Care at Christian Home LLC | — | — | — | 50 | CHRISTIAN HOME CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | COLONIAL HEALTH SERVICES | — | — | — | 70 | NSH COLBY LLC |
| 2024-12-14 | CAREVIEW HEALTH AND REHAB OF MINOCQUA | — | — | — | 72 | CAREVIEW HEALTH AND REHAB OF MINOCQUA, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | Wood Aven Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 82 | RIVER HAWK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | Samaritan Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 131 | SAMARITAN NURSING AND REHAB LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | DOVE HEALTHCARE - SPOONER | — | — | — | 50 | SPOONER REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER LLC |
| 2024-04-16 | MIDDLE RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | MIDDLE RIVER REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-01-25 | Serenity Spring Senior Living at Scandia Village | — | — | — | 50 | SISTER BAY SNF OPCO, LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 0 | $637 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | fmr | 0 | $745 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 1 | $644 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | fmr | 1 | $762 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 2 | $819 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 3 | $906 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | fmr | 3 | $1,213 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,173 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | fmr | 4 | $1,594 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,272 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55043 | acs median gross | $813 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 55043 | acs recent mover gross | $784 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | 1 | $613 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | 2 | $811 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | 3 | $854 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | 4 | $783 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,238 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53813 | acs median gross | $812 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 53813 | acs recent mover gross | $688 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | safmr | 0 | $750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | safmr | 1 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | safmr | 2 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | safmr | 3 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53813 | safmr | 4 | $1,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.