Reads as: riskier than 43.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
20 chains
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
98 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CIBC BANK USA
155 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
WIPFLI LLP
67 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.33
3.60
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.65
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.13
3.49
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.41
3.65
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
58.5
3.33
0.65
0.54
2.15
3.13
0.0%
2025Q3
92
60.3
3.23
0.54
0.55
2.14
3.02
0.0%
2025Q2
91
61.0
3.34
0.66
0.48
2.21
3.11
0.0%
2025Q1
90
65.0
2.02
0.44
0.21
1.36
2.04
0.0%
2024Q4
92
63.9
3.17
0.54
0.43
2.20
3.10
2.0%
2024Q3
92
55.1
3.38
0.62
0.42
2.34
3.31
0.9%
2024Q2
91
52.9
3.57
0.57
0.47
2.52
3.43
0.8%
2024Q1
91
57.5
3.52
0.57
0.50
2.46
3.39
1.2%
2023Q4
92
58.8
3.27
0.49
0.49
2.28
3.11
2.5%
2023Q3
92
58.0
2.87
0.52
0.40
1.95
2.67
4.9%
2023Q2
91
56.6
2.77
0.46
0.48
1.82
2.66
7.8%
2023Q1
90
51.4
3.06
0.43
0.44
2.19
2.88
11.0%
2022Q4
92
46.9
3.08
0.66
0.30
2.12
2.84
6.4%
2022Q3
92
46.6
3.00
0.56
0.39
2.05
2.82
2.6%
2022Q2
91
47.0
2.91
0.52
0.46
1.94
2.67
4.3%
2022Q1
90
46.7
3.01
0.54
0.43
2.04
2.96
0.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2025-09-15
2025-08-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2025-09-15
2025-05-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-13
2025-05-21
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-06-13
2025-05-21
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-06-13
2025-05-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-06-13
2024-10-07
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-24
2024-03-14
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-04-03
2024-03-14
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-04-03
2024-03-14
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-04-03
2023-02-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-03-10
2023-02-16
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-03-10
2023-02-16
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-03-10
2023-02-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-03-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AE COLBY FAC CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AE COLBY FAC CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BAUMANN, TROY
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELONGIA, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRANDT, TYLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
CIBC BANK USA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM THERAPY PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM THERAPY PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEE, DARREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEE, DARREN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-12
current
pecos_ownership
GREER, LAUREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOEHN, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLS, DAVID
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
NSH DOLF STREET LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE COLBY HEALTHCARE CENTER
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE COLBY HEALTHCARE CENTRE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PATZER, COLLEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
PURTELL, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
UMLAND, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WIPFLI LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
WIPFLI LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY HOEHN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY BAUMANN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AE COLBY FAC CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
AE COLBY FAC CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-07-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
AE COLBY FAC CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BRIAN PURTELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA BELONGIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLLEEN PATZER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANA DECKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARREN GEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAUREN GREER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL UMLAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OCOEE COLBY HEALTHCARE CENTER
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE COLBY HEALTHCARE CENTER
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-07-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$438,665
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$379,803
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$317,286
—
$163,176
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$126,043
—
$37,860
—
—
3
propco
2021-06-30
$85,047
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 55019
acs median gross
0
$677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
fmr
0
$723
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55019
acs median gross
1
$638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
fmr
1
$754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55019
acs median gross
2
$809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55019
acs median gross
3
$926
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
fmr
3
$1,238
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55019
acs median gross
4
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
fmr
4
$1,399
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55019
acs median gross
5
$798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
acs median gross
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55019
acs recent mover gross
$824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
0
$2,233
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
1
$719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
2
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
3
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
4
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
5
$789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs median gross
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54421
acs recent mover gross
$809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 54421
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54421
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.