Composite
51.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 96.3 | 86.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.22 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 77.7 | 74.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.93 | in index |
| chow risk | 44.2 | 42.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.10 | in index |
| billing conduct | 14.6 | 18.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.37 | in index |
| staffing risk | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 0.42 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 18.1 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 59.7 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 86.8 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 3.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 74.1 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 2.3 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 90.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 69.4 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 86.1 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.50 | -0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.36 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.50 | -0.96 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.73 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.09 | -0.15 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.50 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.26 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.59 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 92.5 | 5.50 | 0.62 | 1.15 | 3.72 | 5.26 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 89.6 | 5.62 | 0.73 | 1.27 | 3.61 | 5.24 | 0.7% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 84.2 | 5.95 | 0.86 | 1.33 | 3.76 | 5.69 | 1.1% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 82.3 | 5.77 | 0.72 | 1.31 | 3.74 | 5.52 | 0.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 87.1 | 5.22 | 0.60 | 1.27 | 3.35 | 5.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 87.6 | 5.01 | 0.54 | 1.21 | 3.26 | 4.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 86.3 | 5.38 | 0.54 | 1.26 | 3.59 | 5.26 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 79.2 | 7.15 | 0.65 | 1.55 | 4.95 | 6.98 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 85.0 | 6.67 | 0.38 | 1.55 | 4.74 | 6.15 | 3.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 86.7 | 6.22 | 0.41 | 1.46 | 4.34 | 5.80 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 88.4 | 5.41 | 0.43 | 1.11 | 3.87 | 5.15 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 92.9 | 5.01 | 0.48 | 1.04 | 3.48 | 4.81 | 2.1% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 95.6 | 4.61 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 3.21 | 4.29 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 99.9 | 4.60 | 0.61 | 0.95 | 3.04 | 4.33 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 96.5 | 4.82 | 0.61 | 1.02 | 3.19 | 4.64 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Fine | $116,805 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-03-11 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-13 | Fine | $48,731 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-13 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-03-08 |
| 2025-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | — |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-03-11 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-04-20 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-04-22 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | G | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-04-15 |
| 2023-03-07 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | E | 2023-04-15 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUNTY OF BAY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| AHMED, TAZEEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCARTHY, JACQUELINE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WEIDMAN, KYLE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-12-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JACQUELINE MCCARTHY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2021-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KYLE WEIDMAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-12-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TAZEEN AHMED | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 0 | $693 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | fmr | 0 | $809 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 1 | $657 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | fmr | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 2 | $887 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | fmr | 2 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,170 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | fmr | 3 | $1,399 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,049 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | fmr | 4 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,145 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26017 | acs median gross | $860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26017 | acs recent mover gross | $942 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48732 | acs median gross | 1 | $733 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48732 | acs median gross | 2 | $880 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48732 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,167 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48732 | acs median gross | $840 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48732 | acs recent mover gross | $921 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | safmr | 0 | $780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | safmr | 1 | $780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | safmr | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,474 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,206 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | safmr | 3 | $1,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,606 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,314 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48732 | safmr | 4 | $1,460 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |