Composite
21.2 / 100 percentile
Screener / 535030
A
New Horizons Care Center
snfWY
1111 Lane 12, Lovell, WY 82431 · CCN 535030 · chain NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
85
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 21.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3ML signals8Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing14Penalties1Deficiencies12Licensure0Ownership21Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent32
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 52.0 | 41.2 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 22.29 | in index |
| staffing risk | 25.0 | 25.1 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 8.93 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +31.3 vs natl | SIMMONS BENJAMIN | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +31.3 vs natl | WINTERHOLLER DAVID | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +22.8 vs natl | CONNELL ERIC | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +20.3 vs natl | MORRISSEY ROBERT | 13 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 73% fined | WINTERHOLLER DAVID | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 73% fined | CONNELL ERIC | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 73% fined | SIMMONS BENJAMIN | 11 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 62% fined | MORRISSEY ROBERT | 13 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 3.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 41.2 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 25.1 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 41.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 41.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.5%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
54.5
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.77 | -0.14 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.10 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
3.3%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
94.8
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.66 | +0.36 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.77 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WY median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.77 | 3.23 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.40 | 3.13 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.92 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 56.4 | 3.77 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 2.54 | 3.40 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 55.8 | 3.77 | 0.82 | 0.43 | 2.52 | 3.40 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 56.8 | 3.86 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 2.52 | 3.31 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 57.4 | 3.51 | 0.74 | 0.43 | 2.34 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 57.1 | 3.58 | 0.72 | 0.35 | 2.50 | 3.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 61.5 | 3.48 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 2.38 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 56.6 | 3.58 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 2.45 | 3.05 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 54.9 | 3.45 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 2.26 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 54.7 | 3.51 | 0.66 | 0.57 | 2.28 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 52.9 | 3.69 | 0.74 | 0.52 | 2.44 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 55.3 | 3.56 | 0.72 | 0.52 | 2.33 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 49.9 | 4.02 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 2.62 | 3.66 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 49.1 | 4.05 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 52.6 | 4.17 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 2.87 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
1| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | Fine | $7,521 | CMS provider data |
Total fines on record: $7,521
Deficiencies
12B × 1D × 8E × 2G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-04-17 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-01-30 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-01-30 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-01-30 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2025-01-30 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-09-09 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-04 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-09-04 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2023-10-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2023-10-19 |
| 2022-08-18 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-09-23 |
| 2022-08-18 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2022-09-23 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALDWELL, TROY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1999-07-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CALDWELL, TROY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CONNELL, ERIC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CONNELL, ERIC | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CONNELL, ERIC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-10-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CROSBY, BRETT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MATHEWS, MARY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2013-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MORRISON, ROBERT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-05-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2007-03-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SIMMONS, BENJAMIN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WINTERHOLLER, DAVID | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ERIC CONNELL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BENJAMIN SIMMONS | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRETT CROSBY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2004-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID WINTERHOLLER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2017-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARY MATHEWS | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2013-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT MORRISON | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-05-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERIC CONNELL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERIC CONNELL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-10-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TROY CALDWELL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1999-07-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TROY CALDWELL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — WY snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | Thermopolis Rehabilitation and Wellness | — | — | — | 60 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-30 | Shepherd of the Valley Rehabilitation and Wellness | — | — | — | 192 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-30 | Sage View Care Center | — | — | — | 82 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-30 | Granite Rehabilitation and Wellness | — | — | — | 146 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-30 | Wind River Rehabilitation and Wellness | — | — | — | 81 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | Summit Ridge Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 60 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2024-10-01 | Big Horn Rehabilitation and Care Center | — | — | — | 128 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2024-10-01 | Polaris Rehabilitation and Care Center | — | — | — | 105 | NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2024-01-01 | Heritage Home | — | — | — | 50 | SUBLETTE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2023-08-31 | Rawlins Rehabilitation and Wellness | — | — | — | 62 | RAWLINS SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2020-01-01 | Worland Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 87 | SNH WY TENANT LLC |
| 2020-01-01 | Laramie Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 105 | SNH WY TENANT LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 56003 | fmr | 0 | $761 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | 1 | $540 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 56003 | fmr | 1 | $871 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | 2 | $767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 56003 | fmr | 2 | $963 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | 3 | $832 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 56003 | fmr | 3 | $1,189 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,121 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 56003 | fmr | 4 | $1,515 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,240 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 56003 | acs median gross | $823 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 56003 | acs recent mover gross | $936 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 82431 | acs median gross | 2 | $637 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 82431 | acs median gross | 3 | $773 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 82431 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,588 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 82431 | acs median gross | $744 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 82431 | acs recent mover gross | $1,265 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $729 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | safmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | safmr | 1 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | safmr | 2 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,397 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | safmr | 3 | $1,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,782 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,458 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 82431 | safmr | 4 | $1,620 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.