Reads as: riskier than 89.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.1 vs natl
BANGERTER EDWARD
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
GATHERUM JASON
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
8 facilities
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
62% fined
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.68
3.23
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.75
0.56
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.58
3.13
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.73
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
42.3
2.68
0.75
0.20
1.73
2.58
24.0%
2025Q3
92
46.2
2.08
0.53
0.20
1.35
1.78
1.4%
2025Q2
91
40.6
2.66
0.47
0.57
1.62
2.48
0.0%
2025Q1
90
41.3
2.25
0.52
0.51
1.22
2.14
0.0%
2024Q4
92
43.4
1.94
0.47
0.44
1.03
1.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
46.3
2.09
0.63
0.38
1.07
1.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.6
2.36
0.70
0.34
1.32
2.24
0.0%
2023Q4
92
45.8
1.91
0.72
0.16
1.03
1.73
0.0%
2023Q3
92
44.7
2.06
0.66
0.13
1.27
1.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
48.7
1.94
0.68
0.10
1.16
0.84
0.0%
2023Q1
90
50.6
1.97
0.69
0.12
1.16
0.97
0.0%
2022Q4
92
51.3
1.97
0.68
0.12
1.17
0.88
1.9%
2022Q3
92
52.7
1.52
0.56
0.17
0.79
0.78
0.0%
2022Q2
91
48.5
1.27
0.51
0.12
0.65
1.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
48.6
1.60
0.52
0.25
0.82
1.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
—
2025-09-17
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-10-10
2025-09-17
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-10-10
2025-01-03
Health · complaint
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
D
2025-02-14
2025-01-03
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-12-20
2025-01-03
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-02-14
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
G
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2024-12-20
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-12-20
2023-08-30
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-16
2023-08-30
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-10-16
2022-08-10
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2022-09-15
2022-08-10
Health
F0606
Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft.
D
2022-09-15
2022-08-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-09-15
2022-08-10
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-09-15
2022-08-10
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
F
2022-09-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BANGERTE, NATHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BANGERTER, EDWARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BANGERTER, JOHNATHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONNELL, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DARBY, MEGAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GATHERUM, JASON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE, CRYSTAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMILLAN, KARLI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEVES, COURTNEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, BENJAMIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNOWBALL, KELLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMIT RIDGE OC LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-11
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMIT RIDGE OC LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINTERHOLLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN SIMMONS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COURTNEY NEVES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRYSTAL LAKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID WINTERHOLLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD BANGERTER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC CONNELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON GATHERUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNATHAN BANGERTER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLI MCMILLAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY SNOWBALL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEGAN DARBY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN BANGERTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MORRISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-12-31
$289,923
—
$289,923
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$247,655
—
$247,655
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$128,217
—
$128,217
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$176,549
—
$176,549
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 56009
fmr
0
$777
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56009
acs median gross
1
$624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56009
fmr
1
$782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56009
acs median gross
2
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56009
fmr
2
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56009
acs median gross
3
$743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56009
fmr
3
$1,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56009
acs median gross
4
$1,664
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56009
fmr
4
$1,695
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56009
acs median gross
$866
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56009
acs recent mover gross
$736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs median gross
1
$618
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs median gross
2
$909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs median gross
3
$743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs median gross
4
$1,664
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs median gross
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82633
acs recent mover gross
$908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 82633
payment standard 110
0
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 90
0
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
safmr
0
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 110
1
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 90
1
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
safmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82633
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.